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LAD
MIL
LAD
MIL
4.9 RS/g · 3.7 RA/g5.1 RS/g · 3.8 RA/g
Dodgers@Brewers
5:00 PM ET · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Logan Henderson
LAD47%
100-62 · W3
implied score
4.3 — 4.4
8.8 total
MIL53%
103-59 · W5
LADMIL
The read
Moneyline
MIL +116
Total
PASS
Run line
not modeled
- Model gives 52.8% on MIL ML; +116 at FanDuel breaks even at 46.3% — +14.0% EV, 3.0u at ¼-Kelly. Paper-tracked until the backtest clears the model.
sanity cap tripped
The model claims +26.0% EV on the over 7 — a +13.6%disagreement with the de-vigged market. From an unvalidated model that's a red flag about the model, not an edge. No lean.
What the data says
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) is dealing — 3 earned runs across 20 innings in his last 3 starts (1.4 ERA).
- Logan Henderson (MIL) is dealing — 4 earned runs across 15 innings in his last 3 starts (2.4 ERA).
- MIL has won 5 straight.
What the model can't see
- No park factors yet — totals at extreme parks (Coors especially) are unreliable.
- No bullpen, lineup, weather, or umpire inputs in the GAME model yet — v0 prices the starters and season run environments only. (Lineups and weather do feed the separate first-inning model below.)
Listed on purpose: an edge the model claims inside one of its blind spots is probably the market knowing something it doesn't.
First inning — NRFI / YRFI
NRFI 59%lean
retractable roof · weather neutral
yes run (YRFI)league ~50%no run (NRFI)
LAD bat 1st vs Logan Henderson
SP 1st inn
2 R / 18 IP
OPS against
0.559
LAD 1st-inn R/G
0.53 (#17)
Lineup not posted yet.
Model: 0.24 expected runs · 85% scoreless
MIL bat vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP 1st inn
11 R / 28 IP
OPS against
0.655
MIL 1st-inn R/G
0.62 (#3)
Lineup not posted yet.
Model: 0.56 expected runs · 70% scoreless
- Logan Henderson shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (1.00 R/9).
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (3.54 R/9).
- Milwaukee Brewers are a top-3 1st-inning offense (0.62 runs/game).
- Roofed park (retractable) — weather neutral.
Starters' real 1st-inning splits, each lineup's 1st-inning scoring (nudged by the posted top 3), and first-pitch weather, mapped through this season's league zero-rates. Unvalidated like the rest of the model — every posted pick grades on /plays.
Line shopping — every book, every side
| Book | LAD ML | MIL ML | Run line | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -135-17.8% | +112+11.8% | MIL +1.5 | 7 | -109+26.0% | -111-34.8% |
| FanDuel | -136-18.0% | +116+14.0% | MIL +1.5 | 6.5 | -132+22.6% | +108-37.1% |
Highlighted = best price on that side. EV shown at each book's own price — the number you'd actually get.
Probable starters
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LADERA
2.53
FIP
3.38
IP
185
Starts
28
| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 | San Diego Padres | 6.0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 09-15 | Cincinnati Reds | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 09-09 | Cincinnati Reds | 7.0 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
Logan Henderson
MILERA
2.47
FIP
3.37
IP
98
Starts
18
| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 09-16 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.0 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 09-09 | Chicago Cubs | 5.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Form
Dodgers
L@ MIL1-2
W@ ATL4-1
W@ ATL3-1
Lvs ATL2-3
Wvs ATL5-3
Brewers
Wvs LAD2-1
W@ SD3-1
L@ SD3-4
Wvs SD4-3
Wvs SD3-2
Line movement — from our own archive
MIL ML — implied win % by book: no data yet.
Total line by bookDraftKingsFanDuel
6.57.0
Every model run snapshots each book's prices; these charts grow through the day as the archive does.