Play history
Every card ever posted, frozen at post time and graded at the posted odds. Nothing is edited after the fact.
MIL ML +116 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 53% against a break-even of 46% — +14.0% EV.
No plays — nothing cleared the gate. Not betting a dead board is a position too.
No plays — nothing cleared the gate. Not betting a dead board is a position too.
CWS ML +100 (DraftKings) — 3u. Hagen Smith holds a clear starter edge (2.40 FIP vs 3.12). The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +14.5% EV.
Parker Messick shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 32 first innings (1.41 R/9). Chicago White Sox are a top-1 1st-inning offense (0.66 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 +108 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 48% — +19.6% EV.
Max Fried shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 20 first innings (3.15 R/9). Nick Martinez shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 31 first innings (1.74 R/9). Model: 66% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
CWS ML (CLE @ CWS) -118
Over 7.5 -102 (FanDuel) — 3u. Dustin May is leaking runs (8.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.4% EV.
Chris Sale shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (1.33 R/9). Yoshinobu Yamamoto shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (3.54 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
No plays — nothing cleared the gate. Not betting a dead board is a position too.
Cam Schlittler shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 33 first innings (2.45 R/9). Roofed park (dome) — weather neutral. Model: 60% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 +114 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 47% — +17.4% EV.
Logan Henderson shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (1.00 R/9). Michael King shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 32 first innings (1.69 R/9). Model: 69% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.0 +103 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 49% — +20.1% EV.
Drew Rasmussen shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (2.70 R/9). Gerrit Cole shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 22 first innings (2.86 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +19.3% EV.
Over 7.0 +104 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 49% — +20.1% EV.
Max Fried shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 20 first innings (3.15 R/9). Sonny Gray shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (3.41 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
CWS ML +108 (FanDuel) — 3u. Hagen Smith holds a clear starter edge (2.40 FIP vs 4.36). The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 48% — +17.9% EV.
Chris Sale shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (1.33 R/9). Jesús Luzardo shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (0.93 R/9). Model: 72% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Cam Schlittler shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 33 first innings (2.45 R/9). Payton Tolle shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (3.12 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Michael King shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 32 first innings (1.69 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.41 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
CWS ML (CWS @ HOU) +108
Over 8.5 +110 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 48% — +19.4% EV.
Over 8.5 -101 (DraftKings) — 3u. Janson Junk is leaking runs (7.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.5% EV.
ATH MLATH ML +160 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 38% — +22.1% EV.
Over 8.0 -117 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 54% — +10.8% EV.
LAA ML
LAA ML +150 (FanDuel) — 1u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 40% — +17.2% EV.
Zack Wheeler shuts the 1st down — 10 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (3.33 R/9). Nick Martinez shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (1.50 R/9). Model: 67% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Janson Junk shuts the 1st down — 8 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (3.00 R/9). JR Ritchie shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 10 first innings (2.62 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -124 (FanDuel) — 5u. Nathan Eovaldi is leaking runs (6.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 64% against a break-even of 55% — +15.9% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 3u. Rhett Lowder is leaking runs (11.9 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.5% EV.
Over 8.5 -104 (DraftKings) — 2u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +13.3% EV.
SF ML +269 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 37% against a break-even of 27% — +35.9% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +19.2% EV.
Over 7.5 -108 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +17.6% EV.
Over 7.5 +106 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 49% — +18.6% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +16.5% EV.
Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 3u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.4 runs a game. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +14.7% EV.
Clay Holmes shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 17 first innings (2.65 R/9). Boston Red Sox rank 29th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.43 runs/game). Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Brandon Pfaadt shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (2.00 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.41 runs/game). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +16.5% EV.
COL MLCOL ML +162 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 48% against a break-even of 38% — +26.0% EV.
Over 8.0 -115 (DraftKings) — 1u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 53% — +9.3% EV.
Cam Schlittler shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 32 first innings (2.53 R/9). Ian Seymour shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 15 first innings (2.40 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -104 (FanDuel) — 5u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 51% — +19.1% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 4u. Andrew Abbott is leaking runs (7.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +18.5% EV.
Over 8.0 -103 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +15.3% EV.
Over 7.5 -108 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +14.5% EV.
Over 8.5 +106 (FanDuel) — 1u. Robbie Ray is leaking runs (8.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 54% against a break-even of 49% — +11.4% EV.
Gerrit Cole shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 21 first innings (3.00 R/9). Ian Seymour shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 15 first innings (2.40 R/9). Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Logan Henderson shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 17 first innings (1.06 R/9). Milwaukee Brewers are a top-4 1st-inning offense (0.61 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Sonny Gray shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (3.54 R/9). Foster Griffin shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (3.30 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -120 (FanDuel) — 5u. The model makes this 64% against a break-even of 55% — +17.9% EV.
Over 6.5 -120 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 55% — +14.8% EV.
Over 7.5 -110 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +15.8% EV.
Over 8.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 4u. Jackson Kent is leaking runs (7.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +16.7% EV.
MIL ML +120 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 52% against a break-even of 45% — +15.3% EV.
Payton Tolle shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (3.24 R/9). Parker Messick shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (1.20 R/9). Model: 69% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Carlos Rodón shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 15 first innings (3.00 R/9). Nick Martinez shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (1.55 R/9). Model: 67% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Michael King shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 31 first innings (1.74 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.42 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Max Fried shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 19 first innings (3.32 R/9). Drew Rasmussen shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (2.79 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.5 +104 (FanDuel) — 4u. Zebby Matthews is leaking runs (6.1 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 49% — +19.4% EV.
Over 7.5 -110 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +17.1% EV.
Under 10.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +15.1% EV.
Over 7.5 -132 (FanDuel) — 2u. Sandy Alcantara is leaking runs (9.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 57% — +10.8% EV.
Over 8.5 -117 (DraftKings) — 2u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.7 runs a game. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 54% — +11.1% EV.
Over 7.5 -118 (FanDuel) — 2u. Patrick Sandoval is leaking runs (7.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 54% — +10.8% EV.
Walker Buehler shuts the 1st down — 12 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (3.60 R/9). Sandy Alcantara shuts the 1st down — 12 first-inning runs in 32 first innings (3.38 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +18.6% EV.
Over 7.5 +106 (FanDuel) — 4u. Joe Ryan is leaking runs (6.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 49% — +19.8% EV.
Over 7.5 -107 (DraftKings) — 4u. Eury Pérez is leaking runs (9.2 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +17.3% EV.
Over 7.5 -107 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +17.0% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +16.4% EV.
Cal Quantrill shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 14 first innings (2.57 R/9). José Soriano shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (2.10 R/9). Model: 66% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Brandon Pfaadt shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 17 first innings (2.12 R/9). Cam Schlittler shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 31 first innings (2.61 R/9). Model: 65% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Trevor Rogers shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (1.29 R/9). Robert Gasser shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 19 first innings (2.89 R/9). Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Casey Mize shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (0.75 R/9). Miami Marlins rank 26th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.45 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -115 (DraftKings) — 5u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.7 runs a game; Kyle Leahy is leaking runs (6.2 ERA recently). The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 53% — +18.3% EV.
Over 7.5 +106 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 49% — +20.6% EV.
Over 8.5 -108 (FanDuel) — 4u. Mason Barnett is leaking runs (13.1 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +17.0% EV.
Under 10.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 4u. Bryan Woo is locked in (0.5 ERA over his last starts). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +16.1% EV.
Over 8.5 +110 (FanDuel) — 3u. Grayson Rodriguez is leaking runs (6.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 48% — +16.1% EV.
Ian Seymour shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 14 first innings (1.93 R/9). Ranger Suarez shuts the 1st down — 8 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (2.77 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Chase Burns shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (2.89 R/9). Clay Holmes shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 16 first innings (1.69 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -106 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 51% — +18.6% EV.
Over 8.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +12.3% EV.
PIT ML +120 (FanDuel) — 1u. Kyle Harrison has been hit hard lately (20.9 ERA over his last 3 starts); Wilber Dotel holds a clear starter edge (3.04 FIP vs 4.08). The model makes this 52% against a break-even of 45% — +13.9% EV.
Tanner Gordon shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 10 first innings (1.75 R/9). Michael King shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (1.50 R/9). Model: 67% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Sonny Gray shuts the 1st down — 10 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (3.33 R/9). Boston Red Sox rank 27th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.44 runs/game). Model: 60% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -113 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 53% — +18.7% EV.
DET ML +114 (DraftKings) — 4u. Keider Montero holds a clear starter edge (4.14 FIP vs 5.66). The model makes this 56% against a break-even of 47% — +20.2% EV.
Over 8.0 -110 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +14.8% EV.
COL ML +142 (DraftKings) — 2u. Robbie Ray has been hit hard lately (7.4 ERA over his last 3 starts). The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 41% — +18.6% EV.
SF ML +138 (DraftKings) — 2u. Matthew Liberatore has been hit hard lately (6.3 ERA over his last 3 starts); Anthony Molina holds a clear starter edge (3.87 FIP vs 4.75). The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 42% — +17.4% EV.
Robbie Ray shuts the 1st down — 10 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (3.21 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 29th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.42 runs/game). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Jake Bennett shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (1.50 R/9). Boston Red Sox rank 28th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.43 runs/game). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Jared Jones shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (2.00 R/9). Logan Henderson shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 16 first innings (1.12 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Parker Messick shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (1.24 R/9). Anthony Kay shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (3.54 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.0 -112 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +18.1% EV.
Over 7.5 -109 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +16.9% EV.
Over 7.5 -122 (FanDuel) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 55% — +14.2% EV.
CWS ML +129 (DraftKings) — 3u. Foster Griffin has been hit hard lately (8.8 ERA over his last 3 starts). The model makes this 53% against a break-even of 44% — +20.4% EV.
Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +14.5% EV.
Braydon Fisher shuts the 1st down — 0 first-inning runs in 9 first innings (0.00 R/9). Drew Anderson shuts the 1st down — 1 first-inning run in 9 first innings (1.00 R/9). Model: 65% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.0 -112 (DraftKings) — 5u. Dean Kremer is leaking runs (7.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +17.5% EV.
Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 4u. Jonah Tong is leaking runs (6.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +16.7% EV.
Over 7.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +16.6% EV.
José Soriano shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (2.17 R/9). Troy Melton shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (3.50 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 5u. Tanner Bibee is leaking runs (6.9 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 51% — +18.2% EV.
Over 7.5 -130 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 57% — +11.9% EV.
Over 7.5 +101 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +15.2% EV.
Over 8.0 -101 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.9% EV.
Over 8.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 2u. Eury Pérez is leaking runs (12.3 ERA recently). The model makes this 56% against a break-even of 50% — +12.9% EV.
Dylan Cease shuts the 1st down — 10 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (3.33 R/9). Trevor Rogers shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (1.33 R/9). Model: 67% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Payton Tolle shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (3.38 R/9). Noah Cameron shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (2.33 R/9). Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -118 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 54% — +15.8% EV.
Under 9.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +12.5% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +12.4% EV.
Over 8.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 1u. Brady Singer is leaking runs (7.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 51% — +11.4% EV.
Over 8.0 -106 (DraftKings) — 1u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 51% — +10.0% EV.
Kyle Bradish shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (0.64 R/9). Toronto Blue Jays rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.41 runs/game). Model: 72% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Andrew Alvarez shuts the 1st down — 0 first-inning runs in 14 first innings (0.00 R/9). Walbert Ureña shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (0.75 R/9). Model: 70% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Michael King shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (0.93 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 29th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.41 runs/game). Model: 66% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Ranger Suarez shuts the 1st down — 8 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (2.88 R/9). Randy Dobnak shuts the 1st down — 1 first-inning run in 10 first innings (0.90 R/9). Model: 65% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Ian Seymour shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 13 first innings (1.38 R/9). Peter Lambert shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (3.24 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
WSH ML (LAA @ WSH) -116O 8.5 (CIN @ MIL) -105O 8 (LAD @ MIA) -102Over 7.5 -114 (DraftKings) — 5u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.4 runs a game. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 53% — +18.7% EV.
Over 8.0 -110 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 52% — +18.9% EV.
Over 7.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 52% — +18.8% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 4u. Andrew Abbott is leaking runs (8.3 ERA recently); Dustin May is leaking runs (6.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +19.0% EV.
Over 7.5 +104 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 49% — +19.7% EV.
Chris Sale shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (1.08 R/9). Aaron Nola shuts the 1st down — 12 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (3.72 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
COL ML +240 (DraftKings) — 1u. The model makes this 37% against a break-even of 29% — +25.1% EV.
Over 8.5 -102 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +13.8% EV.
COL ML +208 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 42% against a break-even of 32% — +29.2% EV.
Over 7.5 -122 (FanDuel) — 2u. Cody Bradford is leaking runs (6.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 55% — +10.4% EV.
KC ML +104 (FanDuel) — 2u. Zac Gallen has been hit hard lately (7.4 ERA over his last 3 starts); Daniel Lynch IV holds a clear starter edge (3.78 FIP vs 5.36). The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 49% — +13.1% EV.
CIN ML +240 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 38% against a break-even of 29% — +29.5% EV.
Over 8.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 3u. Dean Kremer is leaking runs (7.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +15.7% EV.
ATH ML +153 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 48% against a break-even of 40% — +20.7% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 2u. AJ Smith-Shawver is leaking runs (8.1 ERA recently). The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +13.1% EV.
WSH ML +158 (DraftKings) — 2u. Casey Mize has been hit hard lately (7.7 ERA over his last 3 starts). The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 39% — +20.3% EV.
Over 8.0 -113 (DraftKings) — 2u. Nick Lodolo is leaking runs (8.1 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 53% — +11.3% EV.
Casey Mize shuts the 1st down — 1 first-inning run in 22 first innings (0.41 R/9). Washington Nationals are a top-2 1st-inning offense (0.62 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -114 (FanDuel) — 4u. Michael McGreevy is leaking runs (8.2 ERA recently); Logan Webb is leaking runs (13.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +15.6% EV.
Over 8.0 -108 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +15.9% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +16.8% EV.
WSH ML +168 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 37% — +25.8% EV.
Jesús Luzardo shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (0.96 R/9). Grant Holmes shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (3.12 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Trevor Rogers shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (1.38 R/9). Joey Cantillo shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 29 first innings (3.41 R/9). Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Jacob Lopez shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 20 first innings (2.70 R/9). Dylan Cease shuts the 1st down — 8 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (2.77 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +19.1% EV.
ATH ML +172 (FanDuel) — 3u. SEA has dropped 3 straight. The model makes this 46% against a break-even of 37% — +26.3% EV.
Over 7.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +13.6% EV.
Over 8.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 3u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game; Justin Wrobleski is leaking runs (7.1 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.4% EV.
Over 8 -115 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +12.4% EV.
Michael King shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (0.96 R/9). Gerrit Cole shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 18 first innings (1.50 R/9). Model: 73% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Kyle Bradish shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (0.67 R/9). Payton Tolle shuts the 1st down — 8 first-inning runs in 23 first innings (3.13 R/9). Model: 67% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Walbert Ureña shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 23 first innings (0.78 R/9). 74°F at first pitch. Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.0 +101 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +19.1% EV.
Over 8.5 -101 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +18.0% EV.
Over 8.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 4u. Anthony Kay is leaking runs (6.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +16.9% EV.
Over 8.0 -101 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +16.6% EV.
Under 11 -118 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 54% — +11.3% EV.
Robbie Ray shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (3.12 R/9). Carlos Rodón shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 12 first innings (3.00 R/9). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Ryan Gusto shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 14 first innings (3.21 R/9). Javier Assad shuts the 1st down — 1 first-inning run in 10 first innings (0.90 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 6.5 -119 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 54% — +13.8% EV.
KC ML -118 (FanDuel) — 3u. Jameson Taillon has been hit hard lately (7.5 ERA over his last 3 starts); Daniel Lynch IV holds a clear starter edge (3.73 FIP vs 6.60). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 54% — +13.5% EV.
Over 9.0 +100 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +14.1% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +13.6% EV.
ATH ML +194 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 42% against a break-even of 34% — +24.5% EV.
Chris Sale shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (1.12 R/9). 79°F at first pitch. Model: 60% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
KC ML (TOR @ KC) -118Over 8.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 3u. Luis Castillo is leaking runs (8.7 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +15.5% EV.
ATH ML +181 (DraftKings) — 3u. Jack Perkins holds a clear starter edge (4.92 FIP vs 5.65). The model makes this 45% against a break-even of 36% — +26.2% EV.
Over 7.5 -118 (FanDuel) — 2u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 54% — +11.1% EV.
Cal Quantrill shuts the 1st down — 4 first-inning runs in 11 first innings (3.27 R/9). Shane McClanahan shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 23 first innings (1.96 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Tanner Bibee shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 28 first innings (3.54 R/9). José Soriano shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (2.33 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.0 +101 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +17.5% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +15.4% EV.
Over 7.5 -124 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 55% — +12.0% EV.
STL ML +208 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 42% against a break-even of 32% — +28.0% EV.
Over 8.5 -114 (DraftKings) — 1u. Dean Kremer is leaking runs (6.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 53% — +9.6% EV.
Casey Mize shuts the 1st down — 1 first-inning run in 21 first innings (0.43 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 29th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.39 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Patrick Sandoval shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 9 first innings (3.00 R/9). Bryce Miller shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 16 first innings (3.38 R/9). Model: 60% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -122 (FanDuel) — 5u. Sean Manaea is leaking runs (7.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 64% against a break-even of 55% — +15.7% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +18.8% EV.
Over 7.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +17.7% EV.
CWS ML -108 (DraftKings) — 3u. Ronel Blanco has been hit hard lately (7.4 ERA over his last 3 starts); Sean Burke holds a clear starter edge (3.73 FIP vs 7.01). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +15.3% EV.
Over 7.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +14.9% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 4u. Jacob deGrom is leaking runs (7.7 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +18.2% EV.
Under 11 -118 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 54% — +14.6% EV.
Over 8.5 -106 (FanDuel) — 2u. Peter Lambert is leaking runs (8.2 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +12.7% EV.
Over 8.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +12.6% EV.
Michael King shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 27 first innings (1.00 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 29th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.39 runs/game). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 8.5 -103 (DraftKings) — 5u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 51% — +19.6% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +18.2% EV.
Over 7.5 -114 (FanDuel) — 3u. Zack Wheeler is leaking runs (9.0 ERA recently); Yusei Kikuchi is leaking runs (7.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +14.4% EV.
Over 8.0 -108 (DraftKings) — 2u. Max Scherzer is leaking runs (6.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 52% — +12.6% EV.
COL ML +213 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 41% against a break-even of 32% — +28.4% EV.
Drew Rasmussen shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (3.24 R/9). Robbie Ray shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (3.24 R/9). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
MIL ML (TEX @ MIL) -158O 7.5 (PHI @ LAA) -114O 8.5 (COL @ ATL) -103O 7.5 (LAD @ DET) -102Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +15.8% EV.
Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 3u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.4 runs a game. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +15.3% EV.
Over 7 -118 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 54% — +12.6% EV.
KC ML +138 (DraftKings) — 3u. Daniel Lynch IV holds a clear starter edge (3.54 FIP vs 4.27). The model makes this 50% against a break-even of 42% — +20.1% EV.
Over 9 -105 (FanDuel) — 2u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game; Ryan Feltner is leaking runs (8.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +12.4% EV.
Carlos Rodón shuts the 1st down — 3 first-inning runs in 11 first innings (2.45 R/9). Jake Bennett shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 15 first innings (1.20 R/9). Model: 64% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Nick Martinez shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (1.80 R/9). San Diego Padres rank 29th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.39 runs/game). Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
José Soriano shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 26 first innings (2.42 R/9). Toronto Blue Jays rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.38 runs/game). Model: 62% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 +102 (FanDuel) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +19.6% EV.
Over 9.0 -101 (DraftKings) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game; Tomoyuki Sugano is leaking runs (8.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +17.3% EV.
Over 8.0 -101 (DraftKings) — 4u. Christian Scott is leaking runs (6.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +17.0% EV.
WSH ML +140 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 51% against a break-even of 42% — +23.1% EV.
Over 7.0 -117 (DraftKings) — 3u. Patrick Sandoval is leaking runs (6.3 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 54% — +13.5% EV.
Shane McClanahan shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 22 first innings (2.05 R/9). Casey Mize shuts the 1st down — 1 first-inning run in 20 first innings (0.45 R/9). Model: 73% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Dylan Cease shuts the 1st down — 7 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (2.62 R/9). Toronto Blue Jays rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.36 runs/game). Model: 61% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.0 -114 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 53% — +17.7% EV.
Over 8.0 -110 (DraftKings) — 1u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 52% — +10.8% EV.
Spencer Arrighetti shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 17 first innings (3.12 R/9). Noah Cameron shuts the 1st down — 5 first-inning runs in 24 first innings (1.88 R/9). Model: 66% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.0 +102 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +19.9% EV.
ATL ML +116 (DraftKings) — 3u. AJ Smith-Shawver holds a clear starter edge (3.27 FIP vs 4.86). The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 46% — +18.6% EV.
Under 10.5 -115 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +13.5% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 3u. Nick Lodolo is leaking runs (7.3 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.9% EV.
Over 8.0 -120 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 55% — +11.0% EV.
Michael McGreevy shuts the 1st down — 6 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (2.16 R/9). Kyle Bradish shuts the 1st down — 2 first-inning runs in 25 first innings (0.72 R/9). Model: 66% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Toronto Blue Jays rank 30th of 30 in 1st-inning scoring (0.36 runs/game). Roofed park (retractable) — weather neutral. Model: 63% the first inning goes scoreless (league base ~50%).
Over 7.5 -103 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +18.9% EV.
Under 10.5 -112 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +16.3% EV.
Over 7.0 -118 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 54% — +14.9% EV.
Over 7.0 -112 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +15.4% EV.
PIT ML +112 (FanDuel) — 2u. Paul Skenes holds a clear starter edge (3.08 FIP vs 4.35). The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 47% — +16.0% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +14.4% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +13.4% EV.
Over 7.5 -115 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 53% — +10.8% EV.
Over 8.0 -114 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +16.8% EV.
Over 8.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.4 runs a game; Jackson Kent is leaking runs (9.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +19.1% EV.
LAA ML +143 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 50% against a break-even of 41% — +22.2% EV.
COL ML +152 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 40% — +22.7% EV.
WSH ML +143 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 41% — +19.7% EV.
Over 8.0 -115 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +15.3% EV.
Over 8 +100 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +16.2% EV.
WSH ML +164 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 38% — +24.3% EV.
Over 6.5 -124 (FanDuel) — 3u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 55% — +11.9% EV.
SF ML +189 (DraftKings) — 2u. Patrick Sandoval has been hit hard lately (6.6 ERA over his last 3 starts). The model makes this 43% against a break-even of 35% — +25.1% EV.
Over 7.5 -122 (FanDuel) — 4u. Matthew Boyd is leaking runs (6.2 ERA recently). The model makes this 63% against a break-even of 55% — +15.3% EV.
Over 8.5 +102 (FanDuel) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.5 runs a game; Brad Lord is leaking runs (6.2 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +17.7% EV.
Over 8.0 -114 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +14.0% EV.
WSH ML +139 (DraftKings) — 3u. MIA has dropped 3 straight. The model makes this 51% against a break-even of 42% — +20.8% EV.
STL ML +191 (DraftKings) — 2u. The model makes this 44% against a break-even of 34% — +27.2% EV.
Over 7.5 -112 (DraftKings) — 5u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.4 runs a game; Jacob deGrom is leaking runs (7.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +15.1% EV.
Over 8.5 -114 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +13.3% EV.
Over 7 -115 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +12.9% EV.
Over 7.5 -114 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +11.8% EV.
Over 8 -106 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +11.9% EV.
Under 11.5 -119 (DraftKings) — 5u. Kyle Freeland is locked in (1.3 ERA over his last starts). The model makes this 64% against a break-even of 54% — +16.9% EV.
Over 7.0 -112 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +16.9% EV.
Over 8.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.6 runs a game. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +14.6% EV.
Over 7.5 +103 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 49% — +16.1% EV.
NYM ML +126 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 51% against a break-even of 44% — +16.2% EV.
LAA ML +151 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 50% against a break-even of 40% — +24.6% EV.
Under 11.5 -105 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +14.4% EV.
Over 7.5 -108 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +14.0% EV.
Over 8 -108 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +13.9% EV.
Over 8.0 -109 (DraftKings) — 4u. Merrill Kelly is leaking runs (6.9 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 52% — +12.0% EV.
Over 7.5 -117 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 54% — +13.4% EV.
Under 10.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +14.8% EV.
Over 8.0 -114 (DraftKings) — 4u. Carmen Mlodzinski is leaking runs (9.7 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +12.9% EV.
Over 9.0 -106 (DraftKings) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.6 runs a game; Mason Barnett is leaking runs (8.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +12.1% EV.
CWS ML +150 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 40% — +17.5% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +18.1% EV.
Over 7.0 +101 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +16.3% EV.
Over 8.0 -118 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 54% — +12.8% EV.
STL ML +162 (DraftKings) — 4u. Hunter Dobbins holds a clear starter edge (4.28 FIP vs 5.11). The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 38% — +22.1% EV.
MIL ML +166 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 46% against a break-even of 38% — +21.6% EV.
Over 7.5 -102 (DraftKings) — 5u. Justin Wrobleski is leaking runs (9.9 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +18.2% EV.
WSH ML +126 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 53% against a break-even of 44% — +20.0% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 56% against a break-even of 50% — +11.3% EV.
ATH ML +131 (DraftKings) — 4u. TEX has dropped 4 straight. The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 43% — +13.8% EV.
MIN ML +131 (DraftKings) — 3u. The model makes this 48% against a break-even of 43% — +11.0% EV.
Over 8.0 -105 (DraftKings) — 5u. Clay Holmes is leaking runs (6.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 51% — +19.2% EV.
WSH ML +107 (DraftKings) — 4u. Robert Stock has been hit hard lately (10.1 ERA over his last 2 starts); Andrew Alvarez holds a clear starter edge (3.16 FIP vs 5.03). The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 48% — +17.1% EV.
Over 8.0 -102 (DraftKings) — 4u. Shane Bieber is leaking runs (7.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +15.6% EV.
Over 7.5 +102 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +16.2% EV.
BAL ML +154 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 39% — +23.6% EV.
Over 8 -110 (FanDuel) — 5u. The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +16.3% EV.
Over 8.0 -109 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +15.9% EV.
MIL ML +124 (FanDuel) — 4u. Shane Drohan holds a clear starter edge (3.41 FIP vs 5.02). The model makes this 53% against a break-even of 45% — +18.2% EV.
WSH ML +136 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 51% against a break-even of 42% — +19.5% EV.
Over 8.5 -115 (FanDuel) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 10.1 runs a game. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +11.4% EV.
Over 9.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 5u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.7 runs a game; Ryan Feltner is leaking runs (6.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +15.5% EV.
STL ML +147 (DraftKings) — 4u. Zack Wheeler has been hit hard lately (7.8 ERA over his last 3 starts). The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 40% — +22.1% EV.
WSH ML +148 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 49% against a break-even of 40% — +21.7% EV.
SF ML +131 (DraftKings) — 4u. Bryan King has been hit hard lately (6.8 ERA over his last 3 starts). The model makes this 51% against a break-even of 43% — +18.2% EV.
COL ML +163 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 46% against a break-even of 38% — +22.0% EV.
Over 9.0 -107 (DraftKings) — 5u. These lineups and staffs combine for 10.0 runs a game. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +16.5% EV.
Over 8 -105 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +16.6% EV.
Over 7.5 -108 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +15.6% EV.
WSH ML +148 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 50% against a break-even of 40% — +24.5% EV.
COL ML +158 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 39% — +21.8% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +17.8% EV.
Over 8.5 -105 (DraftKings) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.4 runs a game; Dean Kremer is leaking runs (9.0 ERA recently). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +16.4% EV.
SF ML +140 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 50% against a break-even of 42% — +20.9% EV.
Over 7.5 +101 (DraftKings) — 4u. Casey Mize is leaking runs (7.1 ERA recently). The model makes this 56% against a break-even of 50% — +13.2% EV.
Over 8.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 4u. Jameson Taillon is leaking runs (10.2 ERA recently). The model makes this 56% against a break-even of 50% — +12.8% EV.
Over 7.0 -122 (DraftKings) — 5u. The model makes this 64% against a break-even of 55% — +15.8% EV.
WSH ML -104 (DraftKings) — 4u. Brad Lord holds a clear starter edge (4.25 FIP vs 5.09). The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +16.8% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 50% — +16.5% EV.
CWS ML +104 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 49% — +17.1% EV.
Over 8.0 -110 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +14.9% EV.
Over 8 -110 (FanDuel) — 5u. The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 52% — +18.6% EV.
Over 7.5 -103 (DraftKings) — 4u. Jacob deGrom is leaking runs (7.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 51% — +16.7% EV.
Over 7.5 -106 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 51% — +16.1% EV.
Over 8.5 -113 (DraftKings) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.6 runs a game. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +13.3% EV.
Over 7.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +14.8% EV.
Over 8.0 -107 (DraftKings) — 5u. Zebby Matthews is leaking runs (8.4 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 52% — +17.7% EV.
Over 7.0 -101 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 50% — +17.4% EV.
Over 8.5 -115 (FanDuel) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.7 runs a game; Ryan Feltner is leaking runs (11.5 ERA recently). The model makes this 61% against a break-even of 53% — +14.6% EV.
WSH ML -110 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 52% — +13.9% EV.
Over 8 +102 (FanDuel) — 4u. Noah Schultz is leaking runs (6.8 ERA recently). The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +14.3% EV.
Over 7.5 -106 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 58% against a break-even of 51% — +13.0% EV.
ATH ML +150 (DraftKings) — 4u. The model makes this 47% against a break-even of 40% — +17.4% EV.
Over 7.5 -106 (FanDuel) — 4u. The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 51% — +10.3% EV.
Over 9.0 +100 (DraftKings) — 4u. These lineups and staffs combine for 9.7 runs a game; Miles Mikolas is leaking runs (6.6 ERA recently). The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 50% — +10.3% EV.
SD ML -104 (FanDuel) — 3u. Walker Buehler holds a clear starter edge (4.51 FIP vs 5.92). The model makes this 55% against a break-even of 51% — +7.2% EV.