Guardians@
Rays
8:00 PM ET · Foster Griffin vs Drew Rasmussen
CLETBNo side of this game clears the edge gate (EV ≥ 3% at the best available price, a real win probability, and a model-vs-market gap small enough to trust). Graded for model tracking only.
The model claims +19.6% EV on the over 6.5 — a +10.7%disagreement with the de-vigged market. From an unvalidated model that's a red flag about the model, not an edge. No lean.
- Foster Griffin (CLE) is struggling — 11 earned runs in 12 innings over his last 3 starts (8.0 ERA).
- Drew Rasmussen (TB) is dealing — 2 earned runs across 19 innings in his last 3 starts (1.0 ERA).
- Starter gap: Drew Rasmussen (2.87 FIP) vs Foster Griffin (4.01) — FIP strips defense and sequencing luck, and this is a wide gap.
- No park factors yet — totals at extreme parks (Coors especially) are unreliable.
- No bullpen, lineup, weather, or umpire inputs in the GAME model yet — v0 prices the starters and season run environments only. (Lineups and weather do feed the separate first-inning model below.)
Listed on purpose: an edge the model claims inside one of its blind spots is probably the market knowing something it doesn't.
First inning — NRFI / YRFI
- Drew Rasmussen shuts the 1st down — 9 first-inning runs in 30 first innings (2.70 R/9).
- Foster Griffin shuts the 1st down — 11 first-inning runs in 31 first innings (3.19 R/9).
- Roofed park (dome) — weather neutral.
Starters' real 1st-inning splits, each lineup's 1st-inning scoring (nudged by the posted top 3), and first-pitch weather, mapped through this season's league zero-rates. Unvalidated like the rest of the model — every posted pick grades on /plays.
Line shopping — every book, every side
| Book | CLE ML | TB ML | Run line | Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +139+0.1% | -169-7.5% | TB -1.5 | 6.5 | -121+19.6% | +101-30.6% |
| FanDuel | +138-0.3% | -164-6.4% | TB -1.5 | 6.5 | -122+19.1% | +100-30.9% |
Probable starters
CLE| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 | Boston Red Sox | 6.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 09-15 | Chicago White Sox | 4.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 09-09 | Baltimore Orioles | 2.1 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
TB| Date | Opp | IP | ER | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 | New York Yankees | 6.2 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 09-17 | Athletics | 5.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 09-11 | Houston Astros | 7.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Form
Line movement — from our own archive
Every model run snapshots each book's prices; these charts grow through the day as the archive does.