Week 62026

The computers like Iowa more than the market does: 41 systems average Iowa by 3.6, 6.1 points off the Vegas line of Washington -2.5. SP+ rates this nearly even — Washington No. 30 overall, Iowa No. 19 — so home field is most of Washington's case. No. 20 Iowa goes on the road to Washington in Big Ten play. The model makes it Iowa 60%–40%.

BYU is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 17 overall to Iowa State's No. 58, and the clearest edge is BYU's No. 21 defense against an offense ranked 86th. No. 8 BYU gets Iowa State at home in Big 12 play. The market has this priced about right — 41 computer systems average BYU by 11.2, within a point of the Vegas line. The model makes it BYU 81%–19%.

Indiana is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 4 overall to Nebraska's No. 15, and the clearest edge is Indiana's No. 5 offense against a defense ranked 22nd. No. 7 Indiana goes on the road to Nebraska in Big Ten play. The model makes it Indiana 67%–33%.

Missouri is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 25 overall to Texas A&M's No. 39, and the clearest edge is Missouri's No. 14 defense against an offense ranked 38th. No. 14 Missouri gets Texas A&M at home in SEC play. The market has this priced about right — 41 computer systems average Missouri by 3.3, within a point of the Vegas line. The model makes it Missouri 61%–39%.

The computers like UCF more than the market does: 41 systems average Oklahoma State by 1.9, 8.6 points off the Vegas line of Oklahoma State -10.5. SP+ rates this nearly even — Oklahoma State No. 35 overall, UCF No. 40 — so home field is most of Oklahoma State's case. No. 18 Oklahoma State gets UCF at home in Big 12 play. The model makes it Oklahoma State 58%–42%.

The computers like Pittsburgh more than the market does: 41 systems average Pittsburgh by 11.9, 8.4 points off the Vegas line of Pittsburgh -3.5. Pittsburgh is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 20 overall to North Carolina's No. 61, and the clearest edge is Pittsburgh's No. 15 defense against an offense ranked 88th. No. 25 Pittsburgh gets North Carolina at home in ACC play. The model makes it Pittsburgh 79%–21%.

Florida is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 12 overall to South Carolina's No. 48, and the clearest edge is Florida's No. 9 offense against a defense ranked 51st. No. 16 Florida gets South Carolina at home in SEC play. The model makes it Florida 74%–26%.

The computers like Texas more than the market does: 41 systems average Texas by 10.7, 3.2 points off the Vegas line of Texas -7.5. Texas is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 7 overall to Oklahoma's No. 27, and the clearest edge is Texas' No. 5 defense against an offense ranked 75th. No. 1 Texas faces Oklahoma at a neutral site in Dallas in SEC play. The model makes it Texas 77%–23%.

Notre Dame is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 3 overall to Stanford's No. 102, and the clearest edge is Notre Dame's No. 3 defense against an offense ranked 98th. No. 3 Notre Dame gets Stanford at home. The market has this priced about right — 41 computer systems average Notre Dame by 38.1, within a point of the Vegas line. The model makes it Notre Dame 99%–1%.

The computers like Vanderbilt more than the market does: 41 systems average Ole Miss by 4.9, 4.6 points off the Vegas line of Ole Miss -9.5. Ole Miss is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 32 overall to Vanderbilt's No. 49, and the clearest edge is Ole Miss' No. 12 offense against a defense ranked 45th. No. 9 Ole Miss goes on the road to Vanderbilt in SEC play. The model makes it Ole Miss 65%–35%.

The computers like UCLA more than the market does: 41 systems average Oregon by 8.8, 2.7 points off the Vegas line of Oregon -11.5. No. 13 Oregon hosts No. 21 UCLA in Big Ten play. Oregon is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 8 overall to UCLA's No. 24, and the clearest edge is Oregon's No. 6 offense against a defense ranked 40th. The model makes it Oregon 75%–25%.

The computers like Houston more than the market does: 41 systems average Houston by 0.3, 2.8 points off the Vegas line of Kansas State -2.5. SP+ rates this nearly even — Kansas State No. 23 overall, Houston No. 29 — so home field is most of Kansas State's case. No. 22 Houston goes on the road to Kansas State in Big 12 play. The model makes it Houston 51%–49%.

Ohio State is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 2 overall to Maryland's No. 55, and the clearest edge is Ohio State's No. 2 defense against an offense ranked 56th. No. 5 Ohio State gets Maryland at home in Big Ten play. The model makes it Ohio State 99%–1%.

Tennessee is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 14 overall to Arkansas' No. 70, and the clearest edge is Tennessee's No. 14 offense against a defense ranked 90th. No. 15 Tennessee goes on the road to Arkansas in SEC play. The market has this priced about right — 41 computer systems average Tennessee by 14.0, within a point of the Vegas line. The model makes it Tennessee 84%–16%.

LSU is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 10 overall to Kentucky's No. 44, and the clearest edge is LSU's No. 4 defense against an offense ranked 41st. No. 10 LSU goes on the road to Kentucky in SEC play. The model makes it LSU 71%–29%.

The computers like Alabama more than the market does: 42 systems average Alabama by 4.4, 2.9 points off the Vegas line of Alabama -1.5. No. 6 Alabama hosts No. 2 Georgia in SEC play. Georgia is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 1 overall to Alabama's No. 6; FPI sees it the same way at Georgia by 2.0. The model makes it Alabama 57%–43%.

SP+ rates this nearly even — Penn State No. 16 overall, USC No. 13 — so home field is most of Penn State's case. No. 19 USC goes on the road to Penn State in Big Ten play. The model makes it Penn State 56%–44%.

Utah is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 9 overall to Kansas' No. 66, and the clearest edge is Utah's No. 11 defense against an offense ranked 70th. The computers like Utah more than the market does: 41 systems average Utah by 19.3, 3.8 points off the Vegas line of Utah -15.5. No. 12 Utah gets Kansas at home in Big 12 play. The model makes it Utah 92%–8%.

Boise State is the stronger side on paper — SP+ No. 47 overall to Fresno State's No. 71, and the clearest edge is Boise State's No. 56 defense against an offense ranked 90th. No. 23 Boise State goes on the road to Fresno State in Pac-12 play. The market has this priced about right — 41 computer systems average Boise State by 5.7, within a point of the Vegas line. The model makes it Boise State 67%–33%.