The Capper
Week 6 card
Frozen Tue 10/6 · 10:04 AM ET — lines and odds locked at post time, graded as posted
This week's card
rules v0.21
ARIZ @ WVUSat 10/10 · 12:00 PM ETWON +1.20u
Moneyline · ARIZ ML · -166 · DraftKings
2u
Model
64.8%
Book
62.4%
EV
+3.8%
- ARIZ ML -166 (DraftKings) — 2u.
- The power ratings make ARIZ 5.6 points better on this field; Arizona Wildcats (4-1) on the road against West Virginia Mountaineers (3-2) in Big 12 play.
- The model makes this 65% against a break-even of 62% — +3.8% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 2.6 points and the power ratings by 2.7.
2
TEX @ OUSat 10/10 · 3:30 PM ETLOST −2.00u
Spread · TEX -7.5 · -120 · FanDuel
2u
Model
59.0%
Book
54.5%
EV
+8.1%
- TEX -7.5 -120 (FanDuel) — 2u.
- The model's line is TEX -10.6 against the market's -7.5 — +3.1 pts of value; #1 Texas Longhorns (4-0) at a neutral site against Oklahoma Sooners (2-2) in SEC play.
- The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 55% — +8.1% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 2.5 points and the power ratings by 4.3.
3
SC @ FLASat 10/10 · 12:45 PM ETWON +0.88u
Spread · SC +13.5 · -114 · FanDuel
1u
Model
59.8%
Book
53.3%
EV
+12.2%
- SC +13.5 -114 (FanDuel) — 1u.
- The model's line is SC +9.8 against the market's +13.5 — +3.7 pts of value; South Carolina Gamecocks (2-3) on the road against #16 Florida Gators (4-1) in SEC play.
- The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 53% — +12.2% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 4.2 points and the power ratings by 2.4.
4
CMU @ OHIOSat 10/10 · 3:30 PM ETWON +0.91u
Spread · OHIO -3 · -110 · DraftKings
1u
Model
58.8%
Book
52.4%
EV
+12.3%
- OHIO -3 -110 (DraftKings) — 1u.
- The model's line is OHIO -6 against the market's -3 — +3.0 pts of value; Ohio Bobcats (3-2) at home against Central Michigan Chippewas (3-2) in MAC play.
- The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +12.3% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 2.3 points and the power ratings by 4.7.
5
EMU @ AKRSat 10/10 · 3:30 PM ETWON +1.00u
Spread · AKR +6.5 · +100 · FanDuel
1u
Model
57.2%
Book
50.0%
EV
+14.3%
- AKR +6.5 +100 (FanDuel) — 1u.
- The model's line is AKR +4 against the market's +6.5 — +2.5 pts of value; Akron Zips (1-4) at home against Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-3) in MAC play.
- The model makes this 57% against a break-even of 50% — +14.3% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 2.2 points and the power ratings by 3.3.
Longshots
quarter-to-half-unit tickets · every leg individually clears the gateMoonshot0.25u parlay · 5 legs · +1011MISSED −0.25u
- WMU ML-575KENT @ WMU · DraftKings
- MEM ML-600UAB @ MEM · DraftKings
- JMU ML-320JMU @ GASO · FanDuel
- ARST ML-111USA @ ARST · FanDuel
- AKR ML+225EMU @ AKR · DraftKings
Season ledger
frozen cards only · graded at the posted line and oddsSeason units
+3.84u
23-17 on posted plays
Season record
140-141
50% on gated picks vs close
Model vs close
248-68
79% · 329 games · as of Sat 10/10
| Week | Plays | W-L-P | Net | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 5 +1p | 4-1 | +1.74u | +3.84u |
| Week 5 | 5 +1p | 2-3 | -0.48u | +2.10u |
| Week 4 | 5 +1p | 5-0 | +11.66u | +2.58u |
| Week 3 | 5 +1p | 3-2 | +1.17u | -9.08u |
| Week 2 | 10 +3p | 5-5 | -1.75u | -10.25u |
| Week 1 | 10 +3p | 4-6 | -8.50u | -8.50u |