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Bank of Utah Championship
Stephan Jaeger
No.7 of 15 by win
Why the model likes him
- Cold lately — losing -0.86 strokes/round to the field, which the model discounts him for.
- Ranks No.7 of 15 in the model's win odds.
- Strong history — gaining +3.29 strokes/round at this course — only 2 starts, small sample, best T2.
- Best edge — Win: model gives 3.1%, the +5000 price only needs 2.0% to break even, so +60.3% EV at that price (unproven vs the market until CLV bears it out).
Finish probabilities
Win
3.1%
Top 5
30.6%
Top 10
70.3%
Top 20
100.0%
Make cut
100.0%
Avg finish
8.0
Consistency
2.80
σ strokes/rd
Skill · SG/rd
+0.14
vs field
Strokes-gained profile
PGA Tour · 2026 · per roundOff-the-Tee
Weak · #126
-0.24
Approach
Below avg · #98
-0.06
Around-Green
Strong · #24
+0.26
Putting
Strong · #41
+0.23
Tour percentile shown as the bar. SG/round vs the field — positive is good (lower putts, more greens, longer/straighter, better up-and-downs).
Recent form
last 5 startsSeason SG/rd
-0.10
vs field
Recent SG/rd
-0.86
last ~10 events
Trend
▼ +0.76
cooling off
Made cut
40%
recent
| Event | Date | Finish | SG/rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biltmore Championship Asheville | 2026-09-17 | T57 | +1.02 |
| Wyndham Championship | 2026-08-06 | MC | -2.10 |
| Rocket Classic | 2026-07-30 | T26 | +1.91 |
| 3M Open | 2026-07-23 | MC | -0.06 |
| Corales Puntacana Championship | 2026-07-16 | MC | -0.08 |
Rating penalizes missed cuts and discounts weak-field events, so it can sit below a player's raw round-by-round SG.
History at Black Desert Resort Golf Course
2 startsStrong history
Course SG/rd
+3.29
vs field here
Avg finish
6.5
at this course
Best finish
T2
| Year | Finish | SG/rd |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | T11 | +2.97 |
| 2024 | T2 | +3.61 |
Available markets
2 priced · 2 +EV| Market | Odds | Model | Fair | Edge | Stake | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | +5000 | 3.1% | +3082 | +1.2% | 0.3u | +60.3%edge |
| Top 5 | +240 | 30.6% | +227 | +1.2% | 0.4u | +4.1% |