GreenBook
Pre-tournament edges
updated 8d ago

Bank of Utah Championship

Thu, October 1 · 15 players · calibrated on kambi

Top bet
+82.0%
Chris Kirk
+EV plays
15
of 30 priced
Flagged edges
13
EV ≥ 5%
Model favorite
40.4%
Doug Ghim
capper cardBank of Utah Championship card is live — 5 plays
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Top 5 bets
ranked by suggested stake (edge × win chance), not raw EV%
1
Chris Kirk
Top 5 · kambi
Odds
+450
Model
33.1%
EV
+82.0%
Stake
4.6u
  • No.6 of 15 in the model's win odds.
  • In form: gaining +1.76 strokes/round over his last 4 starts (T10, T72, T8).
  • The price: model gives 33.1% for a Top 5; +450 breaks even at 18.2%, so +82.0% EV — worth 4.6u at ¼-Kelly.
2
Rico Hoey
Top 5 · kambi
Odds
+750
Model
23.5%
EV
+99.4%
Stake
3.3u
  • No.10 of 15 in the model's win odds.
  • In form: gaining +1.41 strokes/round over his last 5 starts (T39, T25, T15).
  • The price: model gives 23.5% for a Top 5; +750 breaks even at 11.8%, so +99.4% EV — worth 3.3u at ¼-Kelly.
3
Neal Shipley
Top 5 · kambi
Odds
+400
Model
28.9%
EV
+44.7%
Stake
2.8u
  • No.8 of 15 in the model's win odds.
  • In form: gaining +1.41 strokes/round over his last 4 starts (T3, T67, T50).
  • The price: model gives 28.9% for a Top 5; +400 breaks even at 20.0%, so +44.7% EV — worth 2.8u at ¼-Kelly.
4
Kristoffer Ventura
Top 5 · kambi
Odds
+800
Model
18.4%
EV
+65.5%
Stake
2.0u
  • In form: gaining +0.68 strokes/round over his last 5 starts (T54, T5, T51).
  • The price: model gives 18.4% for a Top 5; +800 breaks even at 11.1%, so +65.5% EV — worth 2.0u at ¼-Kelly.
5
Ben James
Win · kambi
Odds
+1400
Model
11.1%
EV
+65.9%
Stake
1.2u
  • No.3 of 15 in the model's win odds.
  • In form: gaining +2.25 strokes/round over his last 5 starts (T2, T3, T38).
  • The price: model gives 11.1% for a Win; +1400 breaks even at 6.7%, so +65.9% EV — worth 1.2u at ¼-Kelly.

Course angles · Black Desert Resort Golf Course

history vs the field
Course horsesloves it
Stephan Jaeger
2 starts · best T2 · avg 6.5
+3.29
SG/rd here
Rico Hoey
2 starts · best T2 · avg 11.5
+3.04
SG/rd here
Doug Ghim
2 starts · best T25 · avg 44
+0.67
SG/rd here
Fadesstruggles here
None in this field.

Value bets

15 +EV · 13 flagged
#BetOddsModelEdgeStakeEV
1
Rico HoeyWin
+250002.0%
+1.6%
0.4u+407.8%edge
2
Kristoffer VenturaWin
+250001.4%
+1.0%
0.2u+242.6%
3
Chris KirkWin
+90003.6%
+2.5%
0.6u+228.0%edge
4
Neal ShipleyWin
+90002.8%
+1.7%
0.4u+155.4%edge
5
Rico HoeyTop 5
+75023.5%
+11.7%
3.3u+99.4%edge
6
Chris KirkTop 5
+45033.1%
+14.9%
4.6u+82.0%edge
7
Ben JamesWin
+140011.1%
+4.4%
1.2u+65.9%edge
8
Kristoffer VenturaTop 5
+80018.4%
+7.3%
2.0u+65.5%edge
9
Stephan JaegerWin
+50003.1%
+1.2%
0.3u+60.3%edge
10
Gordon SargentWin
+350000.4%
+0.1%
<0.1u+45.3%
11
Neal ShipleyTop 5
+40028.9%
+8.9%
2.8u+44.7%edge
12
A.J. EwartWin
+200000.7%
+0.2%
<0.1u+38.1%
13
Johnny KeeferWin
+33004.0%
+1.1%
0.3u+36.3%edge
14
Trace CroweWin
+25004.4%
+0.6%
0.1u+14.8%edge
15
Kevin StreelmanWin
+40002.8%
+0.3%
<0.1u+13.0%edge
16
Johnny KeeferTop 5
+20035.2%
+1.8%
0.7u+5.5%edge
17
Stephan JaegerTop 5
+24030.6%
+1.2%
0.4u+4.1%
18
Ben JamesTop 5
-13457.9%
+0.6%
0.4u+1.1%

EV is computed against the offered price. Stake is a ¼-Kelly suggestion (1u = 1% of bankroll) — longshots stay tiny by design. “Edge” flags EV ≥ 5%.