Week 52026

The Cowboys are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 8 overall to the Buccaneers' No. 29. Buccaneers–Cowboys gets the Thursday Night Football stage. The model makes it the Cowboys 72%–28%.

The Jaguars are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 2 overall to the Eagles' No. 21, and the clearest edge is the Jaguars' No. 6 defense against an offense ranked 23rd. The Eagles and Jaguars meet at a neutral site in London, so nobody gets the usual home-field bump in the number. The market has this priced about right — 48 computer systems average the Jaguars by 7.2, within a point of the Vegas line. The model makes it the Jaguars 70%–30%.

The computers like the Bears more than the market does: 48 systems average the Bears by 5.4, 3.9 points off the FanDuel line of Bears -1.5. The Bears are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 9 overall to the Packers' No. 18, and the clearest edge is the Bears' No. 10 offense against a defense ranked 26th. It's an NFC North fight, the Bears at the Packers — division games run tighter than the ratings say. The model makes it the Bears 63%–37%.

The computers like the Titans more than the market does: 48 systems average the Texans by 4.7, 1.8 points off the FanDuel line of Texans -6.5. The Texans are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 13 overall to the Titans' No. 28, and the clearest edge is the Texans' No. 7 defense against an offense ranked 27th. It's an AFC South fight, the Texans at the Titans — division games run tighter than the ratings say. The model makes it the Texans 64%–36%.

The Bengals are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 7 overall to the Dolphins' No. 32, and the clearest edge is the Bengals' No. 6 offense against a defense ranked 31st. The Bengals come in 2-2; the Dolphins are 0-4. The model makes it the Bengals 71%–29%.

The computers like the Patriots more than the market does: 48 systems average the Patriots by 5.9, 2.4 points off the FanDuel line of Patriots -3.5. The Patriots are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 12 overall to the Raiders' No. 19, and the clearest edge is the Patriots' No. 10 defense against an offense ranked 20th. The model makes it the Patriots 66%–34%.

The computers like the Vikings more than the market does: 48 systems average the Vikings by 5.3, 2.8 points off the FanDuel line of Vikings -2.5. The Vikings are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 14 overall to the Saints' No. 23, and the clearest edge is the Vikings' No. 1 defense against an offense ranked 17th. The model makes it the Vikings 62%–38%.

The computers like the Browns more than the market does: 48 systems average the Browns by 1.7, 4.2 points off the FanDuel line of Jets -2.5. FPI rates this nearly even — Jets No. 26 overall, Browns No. 27 — so home field is most of the Jets case. The model makes it the Browns 52%–48%.

The Colts are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 16 overall to the Steelers' No. 22. The market has this priced about right — 48 computer systems average the Steelers by 1.8, within a point of the FanDuel line. The model makes it the Steelers 54%–46%.

The computers like the Giants more than the market does: 48 systems average the Giants by 1.4, 4.9 points off the FanDuel line of Commanders -3.5. The Commanders are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 24 overall to the Giants' No. 31. It's an NFC East fight, the Giants at the Commanders — division games run tighter than the ratings say. The model makes it the Commanders 53%–47%.

The Broncos are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 11 overall to the Chargers' No. 15, and the clearest edge is the Broncos' No. 5 defense against an offense ranked 21st. It's an AFC West fight, the Broncos at the Chargers — division games run tighter than the ratings say. The market has this priced about right — 48 computer systems average the Broncos by 4.1, within a point of the FanDuel line. The model makes it the Broncos 59%–41%.

The computers like the Cardinals more than the market does: 48 systems average the Lions by 3.7, 1.8 points off the FanDuel line of Lions -5.5. The Lions are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 10 overall to the Cardinals' No. 30, and the clearest edge is the Lions' No. 4 offense against a defense ranked 32nd. The model makes it the Lions 62%–38%.

The computers like the 49ers more than the market does: 48 systems average the 49ers by 0.6, 3.6 points off the FanDuel line of Seahawks -3. The 49ers are the stronger side on paper — FPI No. 1 overall to the Seahawks' No. 5. It's an NFC West fight, the 49ers at the Seahawks — division games run tighter than the ratings say. The model makes it the 49ers 52%–48%.

The computers like the Ravens more than the market does: 48 systems average the Ravens by 1.2, 4.7 points off the FanDuel line of Falcons -3.5. FPI rates this nearly even — Falcons No. 20 overall, Ravens No. 25 — so home field is most of the Falcons case. The model makes it a coin flip at 50%–50%.

FPI rates this nearly even — Rams No. 3 overall, Bills No. 6 — so home field is most of the Rams case. Bills–Rams gets the Monday Night Football stage. The model makes it the Rams 57%–43%.