The Capper
Week 5 card
Frozen Wed 10/7 · 6:00 PM ET — lines and odds locked at post time, graded as posted
This week's card
rules v0.31
SF @ SEASun 10/11 · 4:25 PM ET
Spread · SF +2.5 · +102 · DraftKings
2u
Model
59.7%
Book
49.5%
EV
+20.6%
- SF +2.5 +102 (DraftKings) — 2u.
- The model's line is SF -0.7 against the market's +2.5 — +3.2 pts of value; 49ers (4-0) on the road against Seahawks (3-1) in an NFC West division game.
- The model makes this 60% against a break-even of 50% — +20.6% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 3.0 points and the power ratings by 3.5.
2
HOU @ TENSun 10/11 · 1:00 PM ET
Spread · TEN +7.5 · -110 · DraftKings
2u
Model
58.9%
Book
52.4%
EV
+12.4%
- TEN +7.5 -110 (DraftKings) — 2u.
- The model's line is TEN +4.6 against the market's +7.5 — +2.9 pts of value; Titans (0-4) at home against Texans (0-4) in an AFC South division game.
- The model makes this 59% against a break-even of 52% — +12.4% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 2.6 points and the power ratings by 3.4.
3
BAL @ ATLSun 10/11 · 8:20 PM ET
Spread · BAL +3.5 · -115 · DraftKings
1u
Model
61.8%
Book
53.5%
EV
+15.5%
- BAL +3.5 -115 (DraftKings) — 1u.
- The model's line is BAL -0.4 against the market's +3.5 — +3.9 pts of value; Ravens (3-1) on the road against Falcons (2-2).
- The model makes this 62% against a break-even of 53% — +15.5% EV.
- Both sources beat the number: the computer consensus by 4.8 points and the power ratings by 1.7.
Longshots
quarter-to-half-unit tickets · every leg individually clears the gateMoonshot0.25u parlay · 4 legs · +1033pays 2.58u · model 14.5%
- CHI ML-134CHI @ GB · FanDuel
- MIN ML-130MIN @ NO · DraftKings
- BAL +3.5-115BAL @ ATL · DraftKings
- NYG +3.5-104NYG @ WSH · FanDuel
Season ledger
frozen cards only · graded at the posted line and oddsSeason units
-5.09u
5-8 on posted plays
Season record
23-36-2
39% on gated picks vs close
Model vs close
39-26
60% · 65 games · as of Sat 10/10
| Week | Plays | W-L-P | Net | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | 3 +1p | pending | — | — |
| Week 4 | 3 +1p | 3-0 | +6.77u | -5.09u |
| Week 3 | 3 +1p | 1-2 | -2.27u | -11.86u |
| Week 2 | 2 +1p | 0-2 | -4.25u | -9.59u |
| Week 1 | 5 +3p | 1-4 | -5.34u | -5.34u |