Simulations

Week 5 sims

Every matchup runs through 10,000 simulations once a day, from the Monday of the week until it kicks off — each pass drawn from that day's model margin against that day's market line, then frozen. The rows under each game are the week's tape: how the simulated score and win odds moved as lines and ratings did.

Simulated totals are centered on the market number (totals are unmodeled in v0), so over/under splits hover near 50% by construction — the totals exist to turn margins into real scorelines, not to find an edge.

Thu 10/8

1 game

8:15 PM ETPrime Videofull read →

Buccaneers

25.6%▲ 1.4

sim score

TB 20 – DAL 29

most likely 19–27

Cowboys

72.2%▼ 1.0

vs DAL -8.5: DAL covers 49%one-score game 40%tie 2.3%

The week's tape4 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	TB win	DAL win	Sim score	DAL cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-9.5	17.6%	80.3%	18–30	57%	18–33
Tue 10/6	-9.5	16.8%	81.0%	18–30	57%	20–30
Wed 10/7	-8.5	24.3%	73.2%	20–28	51%	23–26
Thu 10/8latest	-8.5	25.6%	72.2%	20–29	49%	19–27

Sun 10/11

13 games

9:30 AM ETNFL Netfull read →

Eagles

27.3%▼ 0.5

sim score

PHI 17 – JAX 24

most likely 18–27

Jaguars

70.0%▲ 0.5

vs JAX -7.5: JAX covers 49%one-score game 44%tie 2.7%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	PHI win	JAX win	Sim score	JAX cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-5.5	28.7%	68.5%	18–25	54%	14–27
Tue 10/6	-6.5	29.4%	67.8%	18–25	49%	18–27
Wed 10/7	-7.5	28.4%	69.2%	17–24	48%	17–26
Thu 10/8	-7.5	27.5%	70.0%	17–24	49%	17–28
Fri 10/9	-7.5	27.9%	69.3%	17–24	48%	16–27
Sat 10/10	-7.5	27.8%	69.5%	17–24	49%	16–27
Sun 10/11latest	-7.5	27.3%	70.0%	17–24	49%	18–27

1:00 PM ETFoxNFC Northfull read →

Bears

61.2%▼ 0.1

sim score

CHI 25 – GB 21

most likely 25–26

Packers

35.9%▼ 0.1

vs CHI -1.5: GB covers 42%one-score game 46%tie 2.8%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	CHI win	GB win	Sim score	GB cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+2.5	53.5%	43.3%	23–21	53%	23–21
Tue 10/6	+2.5	53.9%	43.3%	24–22	53%	26–25
Wed 10/7	+2.5	62.4%	34.8%	25–21	44%	25–19
Thu 10/8	+1.5	61.2%	36.1%	25–21	42%	21–19
Fri 10/9	+1.5	61.3%	35.6%	25–21	42%	24–17
Sat 10/10	+1.5	61.3%	36.1%	25–21	42%	31–16
Sun 10/11latest	+1.5	61.2%	35.9%	25–21	42%	25–26

1:00 PM ETCBSAFC Southfull read →

Texans

62.7%

sim score

HOU 21 – TEN 17

most likely 21–15

Titans

34.4%▲ 0.1

vs HOU -6.5: TEN covers 56%one-score game 47%tie 2.9%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	HOU win	TEN win	Sim score	TEN cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+6.5	61.2%	35.5%	22–18	57%	25–17
Tue 10/6	+6.5	61.0%	36.4%	22–18	58%	18–18
Wed 10/7	+7.5	63.4%	33.7%	21–17	58%	22–14
Thu 10/8	+7.5	62.4%	34.4%	21–17	59%	21–15
Fri 10/9	+7	62.0%	35.0%	21–17	57%	20–18
Sat 10/10	+7	62.7%	34.2%	21–17	56%	14–0
Sun 10/11latest	+6.5	62.7%	34.4%	21–17	56%	21–15

1:00 PM ETFoxfull read →

Bengals

69.6%▲ 0.3

sim score

CIN 26 – MIA 19

most likely 21–15

Dolphins

27.6%▼ 0.5

vs CIN -7: MIA covers 48%one-score game 44%tie 2.8%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	CIN win	MIA win	Sim score	MIA cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+7.5	73.6%	23.8%	26–17	46%	23–15
Tue 10/6	+7.5	74.6%	23.3%	26–17	46%	27–15
Wed 10/7	+6.5	70.1%	27.0%	25–18	48%	26–20
Thu 10/8	+6.5	69.1%	28.0%	25–19	49%	30–19
Fri 10/9	+7	69.0%	28.2%	25–18	49%	21–13
Sat 10/10	+7	69.3%	28.1%	25–18	48%	27–20
Sun 10/11latest	+7	69.6%	27.6%	26–19	48%	21–15

1:00 PM ETCBSfull read →

Raiders

32.9%▲ 1.0

sim score

LV 20 – NE 25

most likely 14–28

Patriots

64.5%▼ 0.3

vs NE -3.5: NE covers 55%one-score game 46%tie 2.6%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	LV win	NE win	Sim score	NE cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-3.5	35.9%	61.1%	21–25	52%	22–27
Tue 10/6	-3.5	35.4%	61.7%	21–25	53%	18–23
Wed 10/7	-3.5	31.9%	65.3%	20–25	56%	23–23
Thu 10/8	-3.5	32.7%	64.7%	20–25	56%	18–22
Fri 10/9	-3.5	33.1%	64.0%	20–25	55%	19–24
Sat 10/10	-3.5	31.9%	64.8%	20–25	56%	18–22
Sun 10/11latest	-3.5	32.9%	64.5%	20–25	55%	14–28

1:00 PM ETFoxfull read →

Vikings

60.4%▼ 0.2

sim score

MIN 23 – NO 19

most likely 23–18

Saints

36.4%

vs MIN -2.5: NO covers 45%one-score game 46%tie 3.2%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	MIN win	NO win	Sim score	NO cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+1.5	49.1%	47.6%	21–21	54%	19–22
Tue 10/6	+1.5	51.0%	45.9%	22–21	52%	23–25
Wed 10/7	+1.5	60.3%	36.7%	23–19	43%	22–17
Thu 10/8	+1.5	61.7%	35.5%	23–19	41%	22–17
Fri 10/9	+1.5	61.3%	35.8%	23–19	42%	23–18
Sat 10/10	+1.5	60.7%	36.4%	23–19	43%	19–19
Sun 10/11latest	+2.5	60.4%	36.4%	23–19	45%	23–18

1:00 PM ETCBSfull read →

Browns

50.1%▼ 1.0

sim score

CLE 20 – NYJ 19

most likely 17–22

Jets

46.6%▲ 0.9

vs NYJ -2.5: NYJ covers 41%one-score game 50%tie 3.4%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	CLE win	NYJ win	Sim score	NYJ cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-1.5	41.6%	55.2%	19–21	52%	22–22
Tue 10/6	-1.5	42.7%	54.1%	19–21	51%	21–20
Wed 10/7	-1.5	49.3%	47.3%	21–20	44%	21–12
Thu 10/8	-1.5	49.3%	47.6%	20–20	44%	20–20
Fri 10/9	-1.5	50.4%	46.8%	20–19	44%	20–16
Sat 10/10	-1.5	51.1%	45.7%	20–20	43%	20–15
Sun 10/11latest	-2.5	50.1%	46.6%	20–19	41%	17–22

1:00 PM ETCBSfull read →

Colts

45.2%▲ 0.9

sim score

IND 21 – PIT 22

most likely 22–21

Steelers

51.9%▼ 0.7

vs PIT -2.5: PIT covers 46%one-score game 50%tie 2.9%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	IND win	PIT win	Sim score	PIT cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-1.5	47.5%	49.2%	22–22	46%	21–21
Tue 10/6	-1.5	46.8%	50.3%	22–22	47%	18–23
Wed 10/7	-2.5	45.1%	52.1%	22–23	46%	25–24
Thu 10/8	-2.5	44.4%	52.3%	22–23	46%	21–23
Fri 10/9	-2.5	44.8%	52.3%	21–22	46%	22–25
Sat 10/10	-2.5	44.3%	52.7%	21–23	47%	19–25
Sun 10/11latest	-2.5	45.2%	51.9%	21–22	46%	22–21

1:00 PM ETFoxNFC Eastfull read →

Giants

46.6%▲ 1.0

sim score

NYG 21 – WSH 21

most likely 23–22

Commanders

50.7%▼ 0.7

vs WSH -3.5: WSH covers 41%one-score game 48%tie 2.7%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	NYG win	WSH win	Sim score	WSH cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-3.5	36.6%	60.5%	20–24	51%	20–21
Tue 10/6	-4.5	36.6%	60.5%	20–24	49%	14–22
Wed 10/7	-3.5	46.8%	49.7%	21–21	40%	20–22
Thu 10/8	-3.5	45.0%	51.9%	21–22	42%	20–22
Fri 10/9	-3.5	45.7%	51.2%	21–22	42%	18–21
Sat 10/10	-3.5	45.6%	51.4%	20–21	42%	19–18
Sun 10/11latest	-3.5	46.6%	50.7%	21–21	41%	23–22

4:05 PM ETCBSAFC Westfull read →

Broncos

57.3%▲ 0.1

sim score

DEN 23 – LAC 20

most likely 21–24

Chargers

39.6%▼ 0.3

vs DEN -3.5: LAC covers 52%one-score game 49%tie 3.1%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	DEN win	LAC win	Sim score	LAC cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+3.5	46.8%	50.1%	21–22	62%	19–21
Tue 10/6	+3.5	47.8%	49.1%	21–21	61%	23–24
Wed 10/7	+3.5	57.1%	39.9%	23–20	53%	24–17
Thu 10/8	+3.5	56.9%	40.0%	23–20	52%	23–20
Fri 10/9	+3.5	57.7%	39.5%	23–20	52%	22–21
Sat 10/10	+3.5	57.1%	39.9%	23–20	52%	24–17
Sun 10/11latest	+3.5	57.3%	39.6%	23–20	52%	21–24

4:25 PM ETFoxfull read →

Lions

59.8%▼ 0.5

sim score

DET 29 – ARI 25

most likely 29–25

Cardinals

37.4%▲ 0.6

vs DET -5.5: ARI covers 55%one-score game 46%tie 2.7%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	DET win	ARI win	Sim score	ARI cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+4.5	63.1%	34.1%	29–24	49%	33–26
Tue 10/6	+4.5	63.7%	33.5%	29–24	49%	30–26
Wed 10/7	+5.5	59.9%	37.5%	29–25	55%	31–25
Thu 10/8	+5.5	61.2%	36.2%	29–25	53%	27–29
Fri 10/9	+5.5	59.6%	37.9%	29–25	55%	30–25
Sat 10/10	+5.5	60.4%	36.8%	29–25	54%	30–22
Sun 10/11latest	+5.5	59.8%	37.4%	29–25	55%	29–25

4:25 PM ETFoxNFC Westfull read →

49ers

51.1%▼ 0.3

sim score

SF 24 – SEA 23

most likely 27–22

Seahawks

45.7%▲ 0.3

vs SEA -3: SEA covers 37%one-score game 49%tie 3.3%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	SF win	SEA win	Sim score	SEA cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-3	51.4%	45.5%	24–23	36%	30–21
Tue 10/6	-3	52.3%	44.7%	24–23	36%	20–23
Wed 10/7	-3	51.0%	45.9%	23–22	37%	25–16
Thu 10/8	-3	51.2%	45.8%	24–23	36%	29–22
Fri 10/9	-3	50.7%	46.3%	24–23	37%	19–24
Sat 10/10	-3	51.4%	45.3%	24–23	37%	21–21
Sun 10/11latest	-3	51.1%	45.7%	24–23	37%	27–22

8:20 PM ETNBCfull read →

Ravens

48.3%▼ 0.2

sim score

BAL 22 – ATL 22

most likely 21–19

Falcons

49.0%▲ 0.9

vs ATL -3.5: ATL covers 40%one-score game 49%tie 2.7%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	BAL win	ATL win	Sim score	ATL cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	+3	53.3%	43.7%	24–22	53%	27–26
Tue 10/6	-2.5	49.0%	47.8%	22–22	42%	26–22
Wed 10/7	-3.5	49.4%	47.6%	22–22	38%	20–21
Thu 10/8	-3.5	48.8%	48.0%	22–22	39%	26–24
Fri 10/9	-3.5	48.8%	48.2%	22–22	39%	25–22
Sat 10/10	-3.5	48.5%	48.1%	22–22	39%	23–25
Sun 10/11latest	-3.5	48.3%	49.0%	22–22	40%	21–19

Mon 10/12

1 game

8:15 PM ETESPN/ABCfull read →

Bills

42.4%▲ 1.4

sim score

BUF 26 – LAR 28

most likely 25–30

Rams

54.6%▼ 1.5

vs LAR -3.5: LAR covers 46%one-score game 46%tie 3.0%

The week's tape7 days simmed · 10,000/day

Sim day	Line	BUF win	LAR win	Sim score	LAR cover	Most likely
Mon 10/5	-2.5	41.7%	55.3%	26–28	49%	23–31
Tue 10/6	-2.5	43.0%	54.1%	26–28	48%	24–26
Wed 10/7	-3	42.0%	55.1%	26–28	46%	30–24
Thu 10/8	-3.5	41.9%	55.5%	26–28	47%	25–27
Fri 10/9	-3.5	40.7%	56.5%	26–29	48%	31–34
Sat 10/10	-3.5	41.0%	56.1%	26–29	47%	27–26
Sun 10/11latest	-3.5	42.4%	54.6%	26–28	46%	25–30