Eagles at Jaguars — Sunday, October 11 at 9:30 AM ET on NFL Net, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. A neutral-site game, so the model prices no home field at all; A cross-conference matchup — no standings strings attached. The Eagles arrive 2-2 (1-1 on the road); the Jaguars sit 3-1 (2-0 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Jaguars at 11.8 wins with 95% playoff odds, the Eagles at 7.9 and 33%.
FPI makes the Jaguars the better team by 6.5 points on a neutral field — +4.7 (No. 2) against -1.8 (No. 21) for the Eagles. The unit matchups: when the Eagles have it, their No. 23 EPA offense meets a Jaguars defense ranked 6th; the Jaguars No. 7 offense draws a Eagles defense ranked 12th. Special teams lean the Jaguars (No. 8 vs No. 18) — hidden points in a close one.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Jaguars by 7.2. They don't agree with each other: the most Eagles-friendly system says Eagles -27.8, the most Jaguars-friendly says Jaguars -23.0. That sits within a point of the Vegas consensus (Jaguars -7.5) — the market and the machines see the same game.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Jaguars -7, with the Jaguars winning 70% of the time. Nothing here clears the posting gate — the edge is inside the model's noise band, and passing is a position.
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -1.8 (#21) | 23 | 12 | 18 | 7.9-9.0 | 33% |
| Jaguars | +4.7 (#2) | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11.8-5.2 | 95% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | -6.5 | -108 | 49.9% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | -6.5 | -115 | 49.9% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | -7.5 | -106 | 48.1% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | -7 | -115 | 49.7% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | -7.5 | -110 | 49.0% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | -7.5 | -108 | 49.0% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | -7.5 | -110 | 48.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | -7.5 | -108 | 48.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | -7.5 | -110 | 48.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | -7.5 | -108 | 48.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | -7.5 | -114 | 48.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | -7.5 | -120 | 48.4% |
- · FPI +6.5 home
- · neutral site: no HFA
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin +7.2
- · no market total — sd_margin default 13.3
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced