Bengals at Dolphins — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. An in-conference (AFC) matchup with tiebreaker weight down the road. The Bengals arrive 2-2 (1-1 on the road); the Dolphins sit 0-4 (0-1 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Dolphins at 2.8 wins with 0% playoff odds, the Bengals at 10.4 and 76%.
FPI makes the Bengals the better team by 10.6 points on a neutral field — +2.4 (No. 7) against -8.2 (No. 32) for the Dolphins. The unit matchups: when the Bengals have it, their No. 6 EPA offense meets a Dolphins defense ranked 31st; the Dolphins No. 30 offense draws a Bengals defense ranked 18th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Bengals by 6.2. They don't agree with each other: the most Bengals-friendly system says Bengals -15.4, the most Dolphins-friendly says Dolphins -2.7. Against the FanDuel line of Bengals -7 the gap is 0.8 points — real, but inside the noise band.
FanDuel has Bengals -7 (-105 home / -115 away); the total sits 44.5; moneylines -360 / +290. The number has moved since the open — DK +5.5 to +7 on the home side, money leaning Bengals.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Bengals -7, with the Bengals winning 71% of the time. That's 0.0 points from the market, in the Bengals' direction. Nothing here clears the posting gate — the edge is inside the model's noise band, and passing is a position.
| Book | MIA spread | Total | CIN ML | MIA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +7 -105 | 44.5 | -360 | +290 |
| DraftKings | +7 | 44.5 | -345 | +275 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | +2.4 (#7) | 6 | 18 | 24 | 10.4-6.6 | 76% |
| Dolphins | -8.2 (#32) | 30 | 31 | 30 | 2.8-14.2 | 0% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA ML | FanDuel | +290 | 29.4% | 25.6% | +14.7% | 1.3u |
| MIA ML | DraftKings | +275 | 29.4% | 26.7% | +10.3% | 0.9u |
| CIN -7 | FanDuel | -115 | 50.0% | 53.5% | -6.5% | — |
| MIA +7 | FanDuel | -105 | 50.0% | 51.2% | -2.4% | — |
| CIN ML | FanDuel | -360 | 70.6% | 78.3% | -9.8% | — |
| CIN -7 | DraftKings | -115 | 50.0% | 53.5% | -6.5% | — |
| MIA +7 | DraftKings | -105 | 50.0% | 51.2% | -2.4% | — |
| CIN ML | DraftKings | -345 | 70.6% | 77.5% | -9.0% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | +7.5 | -118 | 46.7% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -108 | 45.1% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | +6.5 | -102 | 48.0% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | +6.5 | -105 | 48.0% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | +6.5 | +100 | 48.7% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | +6.5 | +100 | 48.7% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | +7 | -115 | 50.0% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | +7 | -110 | 50.0% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | +7 | -115 | 50.0% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -112 | 50.0% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | +7 | -110 | 50.0% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -108 | 50.0% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | +7 | -105 | 50.0% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -105 | 50.0% |
- · FPI -10.6 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -6.2
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced