Browns at Jets — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. An in-conference (AFC) matchup with tiebreaker weight down the road. The Browns arrive 3-1 (1-1 on the road); the Jets sit 1-3 (0-1 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Jets at 5.9 wins with 5% playoff odds, the Browns at 7.9 and 21%.
ESPN's FPI can barely separate them: Jets at -4.4 (No. 26), Browns at -4.6 (No. 27) — a true toss-up on season-long strength. The unit matchups: when the Browns have it, their No. 29 EPA offense meets a Jets defense ranked 25th; the Jets No. 26 offense draws a Browns defense ranked 17th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Browns by 1.7. They don't agree with each other: the most Browns-friendly system says Browns -22.8, the most Jets-friendly says Jets -4.3. Measured against the FanDuel line of Jets -2.5, that's 4.2 points of extra faith in the Browns — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Jets -2.5 (-110 home / -110 away); the total sits 38.5; moneylines +118 / -138. The number has moved since the open — DK -1.5 to -2.5 on the home side, money leaning Jets.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Browns -0.6, with the Browns winning 52% of the time. That's 3.1 points from the market, in the Browns' direction. The board's best number is Browns +2.5 -105 at DraftKings: the model gives it 60% against a 51% break-even — +16.3% EV, 4.3u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | NYJ spread | Total | CLE ML | NYJ ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 | +118 | -138 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 | 38.5 | +114 | -135 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | -4.6 (#27) | 29 | 17 | 17 | 7.9-9.1 | 21% |
| Jets | -4.4 (#26) | 26 | 25 | 14 | 5.9-11.0 | 5% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE +2.5 | DraftKings | -105 | 59.6% | 51.2% | +16.3% | 4.3u |
| CLE +2.5top play | FanDuel | -110 | 59.6% | 52.4% | +13.8% | 3.8u |
| CLE ML | FanDuel | +118 | 51.9% | 45.9% | +13.1% | 2.8u |
| CLE ML | DraftKings | +114 | 51.9% | 46.7% | +11.1% | 2.4u |
| NYJ -2.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 40.4% | 52.4% | -22.9% | — |
| NYJ ML | FanDuel | -138 | 48.1% | 58.0% | -17.0% | — |
| NYJ -2.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 40.4% | 53.5% | -24.5% | — |
| NYJ ML | DraftKings | -135 | 48.1% | 57.4% | -16.3% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -115 | 51.7% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -108 | 48.6% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -115 | 44.2% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | -1.5 | -115 | 44.2% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -120 | 43.4% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -110 | 40.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -120 | 43.5% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -110 | 40.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -120 | 43.5% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -110 | 40.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -120 | 43.5% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -110 | 40.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -110 | 40.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -115 | 40.4% |
- · FPI +0.2 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -1.7
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced