Texans at Titans — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN. This one counts double — an AFC South division game, the kind that historically plays closer than the power ratings suggest. The Texans arrive 0-4 (0-1 on the road); the Titans sit 0-4 (0-2 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Titans at 4.2 wins with 0% playoff odds, the Texans at 7.4 and 16%.
FPI makes the Texans the better team by 5.9 points on a neutral field — +0.8 (No. 13) against -5.1 (No. 28) for the Titans. The unit matchups: when the Texans have it, their No. 15 EPA offense meets a Titans defense ranked 22nd; the Titans No. 27 offense draws a Texans defense ranked 7th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Texans by 4.7. They don't agree with each other: the most Texans-friendly system says Texans -25.5, the most Titans-friendly says Titans -1.6. Measured against the FanDuel line of Texans -6.5, that's 1.8 points of extra faith in the Titans — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Texans -6.5 (-108 home / -112 away); the total sits 37.5; moneylines -320 / +260. The number has moved since the open — DK +3.5 to +6.5 on the home side, money leaning Texans.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Texans -4.5, with the Texans winning 64% of the time. That's 2.0 points from the market, in the Titans' direction. The board's best number is Titans ML +270 at DraftKings: the model gives it 36% against a 27% break-even — +33.8% EV, 3.1u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | TEN spread | Total | HOU ML | TEN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +6.5 -108 | 37.5 | -320 | +260 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 | 37.5 | -340 | +270 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | +0.8 (#13) | 15 | 7 | 29 | 7.4-9.5 | 16% |
| Titans | -5.1 (#28) | 27 | 22 | 32 | 4.2-12.7 | 1% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN ML | DraftKings | +270 | 36.2% | 27.0% | +33.8% | 3.1u |
| TEN MLtop play | FanDuel | +260 | 36.2% | 27.8% | +30.2% | 2.9u |
| TEN +6.5 | DraftKings | -102 | 56.1% | 50.5% | +11.1% | 2.8u |
| TEN +6.5 | FanDuel | -108 | 56.1% | 51.9% | +8.0% | 2.2u |
| HOU -6.5 | FanDuel | -112 | 43.9% | 52.8% | -16.9% | — |
| HOU ML | FanDuel | -320 | 63.8% | 76.2% | -16.2% | — |
| HOU -6.5 | DraftKings | -118 | 43.9% | 54.1% | -18.9% | — |
| HOU ML | DraftKings | -340 | 63.8% | 77.3% | -17.4% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | +6.5 | -102 | 57.5% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -115 | 59.0% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | +7.5 | -110 | 58.9% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | +7.5 | -118 | 58.9% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | +7.5 | -115 | 59.1% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | +7.5 | -115 | 59.1% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | +7 | -105 | 57.6% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | +7 | -108 | 57.6% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | +7 | -105 | 57.6% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -110 | 57.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | +7 | -105 | 57.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | +7 | -112 | 57.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | +6.5 | -102 | 56.1% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | +6.5 | -108 | 56.1% |
- · FPI -5.9 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -4.7
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced