Colts at Steelers — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. An in-conference (AFC) matchup with tiebreaker weight down the road. The Colts arrive 2-2 (1-1 on the road); the Steelers sit 2-2 (2-0 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Steelers at 7.9 wins with 23% playoff odds, the Colts at 8.8 and 40%.
FPI makes the Colts the better team by 1.5 points on a neutral field — -0.5 (No. 16) against -2.0 (No. 22) for the Steelers. The unit matchups: when the Colts have it, their No. 14 EPA offense meets a Steelers defense ranked 16th; the Steelers No. 24 offense draws a Colts defense ranked 21st.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Steelers by 1.8. They don't agree with each other: the most Colts-friendly system says Colts -6.9, the most Steelers-friendly says Steelers -8.4. That sits within a point of the FanDuel line (Steelers -2.5) — the market and the machines see the same game.
FanDuel has Steelers -2.5 (-122 home / +100 away); the total sits 42.5; moneylines +130 / -154. The number has moved since the open — DK -2.5 to -3 on the home side, money leaning Steelers.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Steelers -1.3, with the Steelers winning 54% of the time. That's 1.2 points from the market, in the Colts' direction. The board's best number is Colts +2.5 +100 at FanDuel: the model gives it 54% against a 50% break-even — +7.3% EV, 1.8u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | PIT spread | Total | IND ML | PIT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 42.5 | +130 | -154 |
| DraftKings | -3 | 41.5 | +130 | -155 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -0.5 (#16) | 14 | 21 | 3 | 8.8-8.2 | 40% |
| Steelers | -2.0 (#22) | 24 | 16 | 10 | 7.9-9.1 | 23% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND +2.5top play | FanDuel | +100 | 53.7% | 50.0% | +7.3% | 1.8u |
| IND +3 | DraftKings | -112 | 55.2% | 52.8% | +4.5% | 1.3u |
| IND ML | FanDuel | +130 | 45.9% | 43.5% | +5.5% | 1.1u |
| IND ML | DraftKings | +130 | 45.9% | 43.5% | +5.5% | 1.1u |
| PIT -2.5 | FanDuel | -122 | 46.3% | 55.0% | -15.7% | — |
| PIT ML | FanDuel | -154 | 54.1% | 60.6% | -10.7% | — |
| PIT -3 | DraftKings | -108 | 44.8% | 51.9% | -13.7% | — |
| PIT ML | DraftKings | -155 | 54.1% | 60.8% | -11.0% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | -1.5 | -118 | 46.1% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -110 | 43.0% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -105 | 46.1% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -115 | 46.1% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -110 | 46.4% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -118 | 46.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -112 | 46.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | -3 | -105 | 44.8% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -112 | 46.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -102 | 44.8% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -115 | 46.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -120 | 46.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -122 | 46.3% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -108 | 44.8% |
- · FPI -1.5 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin +1.8
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced