Raiders at Patriots — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. An in-conference (AFC) matchup with tiebreaker weight down the road. The Raiders arrive 3-1 (2-0 on the road); the Patriots sit 2-2 (1-0 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Patriots at 9.4 wins with 62% playoff odds, the Raiders at 8.5 and 36%.
FPI makes the Patriots the better team by 2.4 points on a neutral field — +0.9 (No. 12) against -1.4 (No. 19) for the Raiders. The unit matchups: when the Raiders have it, their No. 20 EPA offense meets a Patriots defense ranked 10th; the Patriots No. 12 offense draws a Raiders defense ranked 13th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Patriots by 5.9. They don't agree with each other: the most Raiders-friendly system says Raiders -6.7, the most Patriots-friendly says Patriots -24.6. Measured against the FanDuel line of Patriots -3.5, that's 2.4 points of extra faith in the Patriots — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Patriots -3.5 (-110 home / -110 away); the total sits 45.5; moneylines +158 / -188. The number has moved since the open — DK -8.5 to -3.5 on the home side, money leaning Raiders.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Patriots -5.3, with the Patriots winning 66% of the time. That's 1.8 points from the market, in the Patriots' direction. The board's best number is Patriots -3.5 -105 at DraftKings: the model gives it 56% against a 51% break-even — +8.6% EV, 2.3u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | NE spread | Total | LV ML | NE ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 | +158 | -188 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 | 45.5 | +154 | -185 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | -1.4 (#19) | 20 | 13 | 26 | 8.5-8.4 | 36% |
| Patriots | +0.9 (#12) | 12 | 10 | 25 | 9.4-7.6 | 62% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE -3.5top play | DraftKings | -105 | 55.6% | 51.2% | +8.6% | 2.3u |
| NE -3.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 55.6% | 52.4% | +6.2% | 1.7u |
| NE ML | DraftKings | -185 | 65.9% | 64.9% | +1.6% | 0.7u |
| NE ML | FanDuel | -188 | 65.9% | 65.3% | +1.0% | 0.5u |
| LV +3.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 44.4% | 52.4% | -15.3% | — |
| LV ML | FanDuel | +158 | 34.1% | 38.8% | -12.1% | — |
| LV +3.5 | DraftKings | -115 | 44.4% | 53.5% | -17.1% | — |
| LV ML | DraftKings | +154 | 34.1% | 39.4% | -13.5% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -118 | 52.1% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -112 | 52.1% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -112 | 55.7% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -114 | 55.7% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -110 | 55.7% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -115 | 55.7% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -110 | 55.6% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -115 | 55.6% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -108 | 55.6% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -115 | 55.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -110 | 55.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -112 | 55.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -105 | 55.6% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -110 | 55.6% |
- · FPI +2.4 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin +5.9
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced