Vikings at Saints — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. An in-conference (NFC) matchup with tiebreaker weight down the road. The Vikings arrive 4-0 (2-0 on the road); the Saints sit 1-3 (0-2 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Saints at 7.0 wins with 17% playoff odds, the Vikings at 10.7 and 77%.
FPI makes the Vikings the better team by 2.6 points on a neutral field — +0.5 (No. 14) against -2.1 (No. 23) for the Saints. The unit matchups: when the Vikings have it, their No. 28 EPA offense meets a Saints defense ranked 28th; the Saints No. 17 offense draws a Vikings defense ranked 1st. Special teams lean the Vikings (No. 2 vs No. 19) — hidden points in a close one.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Vikings by 5.3. They don't agree with each other: the most Vikings-friendly system says Vikings -28.0, the most Saints-friendly says Saints -3.5. Measured against the FanDuel line of Vikings -2.5, that's 2.8 points of extra faith in the Vikings — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Vikings -2.5 (-110 home / -110 away); the total sits 41.5; moneylines -132 / +112. The number has moved since the open — DK +1.5 to +2.5 on the home side, money leaning Vikings.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Vikings -3.9, with the Vikings winning 62% of the time. That's 1.4 points from the market, in the Vikings' direction. The board's best number is Vikings ML -132 at FanDuel: the model gives it 62% against a 57% break-even — +9.1% EV, 3.0u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | NO spread | Total | MIN ML | NO ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 | -132 | +112 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 | 41.5 | -142 | +120 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | +0.5 (#14) | 28 | 1 | 2 | 10.7-6.3 | 77% |
| Saints | -2.1 (#23) | 17 | 28 | 19 | 7.0-10.0 | 17% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN MLtop play | FanDuel | -132 | 62.1% | 56.9% | +9.1% | 3.0u |
| MIN -2.5 | DraftKings | +100 | 54.5% | 50.0% | +8.9% | 2.2u |
| MIN ML | DraftKings | -142 | 62.1% | 58.7% | +5.8% | 2.1u |
| MIN -2.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 54.5% | 52.4% | +4.0% | 1.1u |
| NO +2.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 45.5% | 52.4% | -13.1% | — |
| NO ML | FanDuel | +112 | 37.9% | 47.2% | -19.6% | — |
| NO +2.5 | DraftKings | -120 | 45.5% | 54.5% | -16.5% | — |
| NO ML | DraftKings | +120 | 37.9% | 45.5% | -16.6% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -104 | 52.2% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -105 | 52.2% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -104 | 42.6% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -105 | 42.6% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -102 | 42.4% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | +2.5 | -112 | 45.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -102 | 42.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | +2.5 | -110 | 45.5% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -102 | 42.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | +2.5 | -110 | 45.5% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -102 | 42.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -102 | 42.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | +2.5 | -110 | 45.5% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | +2.5 | -120 | 45.5% |
- · FPI -2.6 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -5.3
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced