Broncos at Chargers — Sunday, October 11 at 4:05 PM ET on CBS, SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. This one counts double — an AFC West division game, the kind that historically plays closer than the power ratings suggest. The Broncos arrive 2-2 (0-2 on the road); the Chargers sit 0-4 (0-2 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Chargers at 5.8 wins with 5% playoff odds, the Broncos at 9.4 and 57%.
FPI makes the Broncos the better team by 1.6 points on a neutral field — +1.2 (No. 11) against -0.4 (No. 15) for the Chargers. The unit matchups: when the Broncos have it, their No. 16 EPA offense meets a Chargers defense ranked 4th; the Chargers No. 21 offense draws a Broncos defense ranked 5th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Broncos by 4.1. They don't agree with each other: the most Broncos-friendly system says Broncos -28.0, the most Chargers-friendly says Chargers -2.3. That sits within a point of the FanDuel line (Broncos -3.5) — the market and the machines see the same game.
FanDuel has Broncos -3.5 (-110 home / -110 away); the total sits 42.5; moneylines -198 / +166. The number has moved since the open — DK -2.5 to +3.5 on the home side, money leaning Broncos.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Broncos -2.8, with the Broncos winning 59% of the time. That's 0.7 points from the market, in the Chargers' direction. The board's best number is Chargers ML +166 at FanDuel: the model gives it 41% against a 38% break-even — +9.8% EV, 1.5u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | LAC spread | Total | DEN ML | LAC ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 | -198 | +166 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 | 41.5 | -185 | +154 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +1.2 (#11) | 16 | 5 | 21 | 9.4-7.6 | 57% |
| Chargers | -0.4 (#15) | 21 | 4 | 28 | 5.8-11.1 | 5% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC MLtop play | FanDuel | +166 | 41.3% | 37.6% | +9.8% | 1.5u |
| LAC ML | DraftKings | +154 | 41.3% | 39.4% | +4.8% | 0.8u |
| DEN -3.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 47.9% | 52.4% | -8.6% | — |
| LAC +3.5 | FanDuel | -110 | 52.1% | 52.4% | -0.5% | — |
| DEN ML | FanDuel | -198 | 58.7% | 66.4% | -11.6% | — |
| DEN -3.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 47.9% | 51.9% | -7.8% | — |
| LAC +3.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 52.1% | 52.8% | -1.4% | — |
| DEN ML | DraftKings | -185 | 58.7% | 64.9% | -9.5% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -110 | 61.5% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -115 | 61.5% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -118 | 52.0% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -110 | 52.0% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -118 | 51.9% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -112 | 51.9% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -118 | 52.1% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -118 | 52.1% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -112 | 52.1% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -112 | 52.1% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -115 | 52.1% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -112 | 52.1% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | +3.5 | -110 | 52.1% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | +3.5 | -112 | 52.1% |
- · FPI -1.6 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -4.1
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced