Bears at Packers — Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET on Fox, Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. This one counts double — an NFC North division game, the kind that historically plays closer than the power ratings suggest. The Bears arrive 3-1 (1-0 on the road); the Packers sit 2-2 (0-1 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Packers at 7.6 wins with 14% playoff odds, the Bears at 11.5 and 87%.
FPI makes the Bears the better team by 3.1 points on a neutral field — +2.2 (No. 9) against -1.0 (No. 18) for the Packers. The unit matchups: when the Bears have it, their No. 10 EPA offense meets a Packers defense ranked 26th; the Packers No. 11 offense draws a Bears defense ranked 8th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Bears by 5.4. They don't agree with each other: the most Bears-friendly system says Bears -19.2, the most Packers-friendly says Packers -3.1. Measured against the FanDuel line of Bears -1.5, that's 3.9 points of extra faith in the Bears — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Bears -1.5 (-114 home / -106 away); the total sits 46.5; moneylines -120 / +102. The number has moved since the open — DK -3 to +1.5 on the home side, money leaning Bears.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Bears -4.2, with the Bears winning 63% of the time. That's 2.7 points from the market, in the Bears' direction. The board's best number is Bears ML -120 at FanDuel: the model gives it 63% against a 55% break-even — +14.7% EV, 4.4u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | GB spread | Total | CHI ML | GB ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +1.5 -114 | 46.5 | -120 | +102 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 | 47.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | +2.1 (#9) | 10 | 8 | 11 | 11.5-5.4 | 87% |
| Packers | -0.9 (#18) | 11 | 26 | 9 | 7.6-9.3 | 15% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI ML | FanDuel | -120 | 62.5% | 54.5% | +14.7% | 4.4u |
| CHI MLtop play | DraftKings | -125 | 62.5% | 55.6% | +12.6% | 3.9u |
| CHI -1.5 | FanDuel | -106 | 58.1% | 51.5% | +13.0% | 3.4u |
| CHI -1.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 58.1% | 52.8% | +10.1% | 2.8u |
| GB +1.5 | FanDuel | -114 | 41.9% | 53.3% | -21.4% | — |
| GB ML | FanDuel | +102 | 37.5% | 49.5% | -24.3% | — |
| GB +1.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 41.9% | 51.9% | -19.4% | — |
| GB ML | DraftKings | +105 | 37.5% | 48.8% | -23.2% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | +2.5 | -106 | 53.0% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | +3 | -118 | 54.5% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | +2.5 | -115 | 44.3% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | +2.5 | -110 | 44.3% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -110 | 41.3% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | +2.5 | -115 | 44.3% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -110 | 41.8% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -110 | 41.8% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -110 | 41.8% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -105 | 41.8% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -110 | 41.9% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -108 | 41.9% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | +1.5 | -114 | 41.9% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | +1.5 | -108 | 41.9% |
- · FPI -3.1 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -5.4
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced