Lions at Cardinals — Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM ET on Fox, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. An in-conference (NFC) matchup with tiebreaker weight down the road. The Lions arrive 2-2 (0-2 on the road); the Cardinals sit 1-3 (0-1 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Cardinals at 4.8 wins with 0% playoff odds, the Lions at 9.6 and 51%.
FPI makes the Lions the better team by 6.6 points on a neutral field — +1.3 (No. 10) against -5.3 (No. 30) for the Cardinals. The unit matchups: when the Lions have it, their No. 4 EPA offense meets a Cardinals defense ranked 32nd; the Cardinals No. 22 offense draws a Lions defense ranked 29th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Lions by 3.7. They don't agree with each other: the most Lions-friendly system says Lions -14.5, the most Cardinals-friendly says Cardinals -2.6. Measured against the FanDuel line of Lions -5.5, that's 1.8 points of extra faith in the Cardinals — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Lions -5.5 (-115 home / -105 away); the total sits 54.5; moneylines -245 / +200. The number has moved since the open — DK +8.5 to +5.5 on the home side, money leaning Cardinals.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Lions -4, with the Lions winning 62% of the time. That's 1.5 points from the market, in the Cardinals' direction. The board's best number is Cardinals ML +205 at DraftKings: the model gives it 38% against a 33% break-even — +17.0% EV, 2.1u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | ARI spread | Total | DET ML | ARI ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 | 54.5 | -250 | +205 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | +1.3 (#10) | 4 | 29 | 13 | 9.6-7.4 | 51% |
| Cardinals | -5.3 (#30) | 22 | 32 | 22 | 4.8-12.2 | 0% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI MLtop play | DraftKings | +205 | 38.4% | 32.8% | +17.0% | 2.1u |
| ARI ML | FanDuel | +200 | 38.4% | 33.3% | +15.1% | 1.9u |
| ARI +5.5 | DraftKings | -112 | 54.4% | 52.8% | +2.9% | 0.8u |
| ARI +5.5 | FanDuel | -115 | 54.4% | 53.5% | +1.7% | 0.5u |
| DET -5.5 | FanDuel | -105 | 45.6% | 51.2% | -10.9% | — |
| DET ML | FanDuel | -245 | 61.6% | 71.0% | -13.2% | — |
| DET -5.5 | DraftKings | -108 | 45.6% | 51.9% | -12.1% | — |
| DET ML | DraftKings | -250 | 61.6% | 71.4% | -13.7% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | +4.5 | -108 | 49.1% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | +4.5 | -115 | 49.1% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | +5.5 | -110 | 54.6% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | +5.5 | -118 | 54.6% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | +5.5 | -110 | 54.3% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | +5.5 | -118 | 54.3% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | +5.5 | -110 | 54.4% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | +5.5 | -115 | 54.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | +5.5 | -110 | 54.4% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | +5.5 | -115 | 54.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | +5.5 | -112 | 54.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | +5.5 | -115 | 54.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | +5.5 | -112 | 54.4% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | +5.5 | -115 | 54.4% |
- · FPI -6.6 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -3.7
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced