49ers at Seahawks — Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM ET on Fox, Lumen Field in Seattle, WA. This one counts double — an NFC West division game, the kind that historically plays closer than the power ratings suggest. The 49ers arrive 4-0 (1-0 on the road); the Seahawks sit 3-1 (2-0 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Seahawks at 10.6 wins with 74% playoff odds, the 49ers at 13.4 and 99%.
FPI makes the 49ers the better team by 2.9 points on a neutral field — +6.9 (No. 1) against +4.0 (No. 5) for the Seahawks. The unit matchups: when the 49ers have it, their No. 1 EPA offense meets a Seahawks defense ranked 2nd; the Seahawks No. 9 offense draws a 49ers defense ranked 15th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the 49ers by 0.6. They don't agree with each other: the most 49ers-friendly system says 49ers -13.2, the most Seahawks-friendly says Seahawks -9.4. Measured against the FanDuel line of Seahawks -3, that's 3.6 points of extra faith in the 49ers — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Seahawks -3 (-118 home / -104 away); the total sits 46.5; moneylines +144 / -172. The number has moved since the open — DK -3.5 to -3 on the home side, money leaning 49ers.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is 49ers -0.7, with the 49ers winning 52% of the time. That's 3.7 points from the market, in the 49ers' direction. Nothing here clears the posting gate — the edge is inside the model's noise band, and passing is a position.
| Book | SEA spread | Total | SF ML | SEA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -3 -118 | 46.5 | +144 | -172 |
| DraftKings | -3 | 46.5 | +140 | -166 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +6.9 (#1) | 1 | 15 | 4 | 13.4-3.6 | 99% |
| Seahawks | +4.0 (#5) | 9 | 2 | 7 | 10.6-6.4 | 74% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF +3 | FanDuel | -104 | 61.2% | 51.0% | +20.0% | 5.2u |
| SF +3 | DraftKings | -105 | 61.2% | 51.2% | +19.5% | 5.1u |
| SF ML | FanDuel | +144 | 52.2% | 41.0% | +27.3% | 4.7u |
| SF ML | DraftKings | +140 | 52.2% | 41.7% | +25.2% | 4.5u |
| SEA -3 | FanDuel | -118 | 38.8% | 54.1% | -28.3% | — |
| SEA ML | FanDuel | -172 | 47.8% | 63.2% | -24.4% | — |
| SEA -3 | DraftKings | -115 | 38.8% | 53.5% | -27.4% | — |
| SEA ML | DraftKings | -166 | 47.8% | 62.4% | -23.4% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | -3 | -110 | 38.0% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -120 | 39.4% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | -3 | -110 | 38.8% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -122 | 40.3% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | -3 | -118 | 38.6% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | -3 | -110 | 38.6% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | -3 | -118 | 38.8% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | -3 | -110 | 38.8% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | -3 | -118 | 38.8% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -110 | 38.8% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | -3 | -118 | 38.8% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -115 | 38.8% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | -3 | -118 | 38.8% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -115 | 38.8% |
- · FPI -2.9 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -0.6
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced