Ravens at Falcons — Sunday, October 11 at 8:20 PM ET on NBC, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. A cross-conference matchup — no standings strings attached; the league gave it the Sunday night window. The Ravens arrive 3-1 (2-0 on the road); the Falcons sit 2-2 (0-1 at home). FPI's season projection frames the stakes: the Falcons at 7.8 wins with 34% playoff odds, the Ravens at 10.4 and 77%.
FPI makes the Falcons the better team by 1.4 points on a neutral field — -1.7 (No. 20) against -3.1 (No. 25) for the Ravens. The unit matchups: when the Ravens have it, their No. 25 EPA offense meets a Falcons defense ranked 19th; the Falcons No. 18 offense draws a Ravens defense ranked 14th.
ThePredictionTracker aggregates 48 computer systems on this game, and their average says the Ravens by 1.2. They don't agree with each other: the most Ravens-friendly system says Ravens -9.8, the most Falcons-friendly says Falcons -4.3. Measured against the FanDuel line of Falcons -3.5, that's 4.7 points of extra faith in the Ravens — the kind of gap this model exists to catch.
FanDuel has Falcons -3.5 (+100 home / -122 away); the total sits 43.5; moneylines +144 / -172. The number has moved since the open — DK +4.5 to -3 on the home side, money leaning Falcons.
Blend the consensus with the ratings and the model's line is Falcons -0.1, with the Falcons winning 50% of the time. That's 3.4 points from the market, in the Ravens' direction. The board's best number is Ravens +3 +100 at DraftKings: the model gives it 59% against a 50% break-even — +17.6% EV, 4.4u at quarter-Kelly. Paper-tracked, like everything on this site, until the archive proves the model.
| Book | ATL spread | Total | BAL ML | ATL ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 | +144 | -172 |
| DraftKings | -3 | 43.5 | +145 | -175 |
| Team | FPI | Off | Def | ST | Proj W-L | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.1 (#25) | 25 | 14 | 27 | 10.4-6.6 | 77% |
| Falcons | -1.7 (#20) | 18 | 19 | 20 | 7.8-9.1 | 34% |
Unit columns are EPA ranks among the 32 teams — lower is better.
| Bet | Book | Odds | Model | Break-even | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL +3 | DraftKings | +100 | 58.8% | 50.0% | +17.6% | 4.4u |
| BAL ML | DraftKings | +145 | 49.6% | 40.8% | +21.5% | 3.7u |
| BAL ML | FanDuel | +144 | 49.6% | 41.0% | +21.0% | 3.6u |
| BAL +3.5top play | FanDuel | -122 | 60.3% | 55.0% | +9.7% | 3.0u |
| ATL -3.5 | FanDuel | +100 | 39.7% | 50.0% | -20.6% | — |
| ATL ML | FanDuel | -172 | 50.4% | 63.2% | -20.3% | — |
| ATL -3 | DraftKings | -120 | 41.2% | 54.5% | -24.5% | — |
| ATL ML | DraftKings | -175 | 50.4% | 63.6% | -20.8% | — |
| Snapshot (ET) | Book | Line | Odds | Model cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | FanDuel | -2.5 | -115 | 42.4% |
| Tue, 10/6, 10:04 AM | DraftKings | -2.5 | -118 | 42.4% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | FanDuel | -3.5 | -104 | 38.2% |
| Wed, 10/7, 6:00 PM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -105 | 38.2% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | FanDuel | -3.5 | +100 | 38.3% |
| Thu, 10/8, 6:09 PM | DraftKings | -3 | -118 | 39.8% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | FanDuel | -3.5 | +100 | 39.7% |
| Fri, 10/9, 6:11 PM | DraftKings | -3.5 | -102 | 39.7% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | +100 | 39.7% |
| Sat, 10/10, 11:45 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -122 | 41.2% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | +100 | 39.7% |
| Sun, 10/11, 8:02 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -120 | 41.2% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | FanDuel | -3.5 | +100 | 39.7% |
| Sun, 10/11, 11:39 AM | DraftKings | -3 | -120 | 41.2% |
- · FPI +1.4 home
- · HFA +1.8
- · prediction tracker: 48 systems, mean home margin -1.2
- · totals unmodeled in v0 — market total displayed, not priced